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Grizzly's Growlings Back Issues

Monday Morning Market Musings    01/04/99

Welcome to "Y2K-1"

Needless to say, the performance of the markets over the last four months of 1998 was a major disappointment for us Bears. The markets have been unexpectedly resilient, absorbing and actually being energized by everything the Bears could throw at it:

• The historic impeachment of a popular president.

• The collapse of Russia.

• The collapse of the crude oil market.

• A brief "military exercise" flexed against Iraq.

• The highest rate of worldwide deflation since the Great Depression.

• The collapse of the Long-Term Credit hedge fund as well as a dozen major and minor Japanese banks and insurance companies. Japan is in full-fledged depression, suffering its highest unemployment rate and highest level of economic contraction since World War II.

• The near-collapse of most of the rest of Asia, and much of  South American.

• US consumer savings have all but disappeared. Simply, there is very little in the bank for that proverbial rainy day.

For what it’s worth, here is some of what we see the Bears throwing at the market in 1999: (We’ll discuss these in greater detail as the year progresses):