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Grizzly's Growlings Back Issues

Monday Morning Market Musings    01/11/99

Feelin' Fine in '99

There are some very troublesome undertones to the markets’ strength of late. The rally has been concentrated in a narrow (and still narrowing) list of blue chips.

As Robert Prechter elaborates upon in this month’s Elliott Wave Theorist letter, despite the current rally:

"Internetulip" mania is providing the only real energy for the markets. Amazon.com, Yahoo, EBay, America Online, and their brethren are in classic blow-off mode. Like geysers at Yosemite National Park, no one knows exactly how high and how far they will shoot before running out of steam. And when that pressure stops, there’s no support except for the thin mountain air.

Not much happening in the markets Sunday night going into Monday morning trading on Wall Street. The Asian markets are narrowly mixed and Europe is slightly lower. The March S&P 500 futures trading on Globex are off about three points.

We continue with our ongoing overall outlook for US stocks: FULL CRASH ALERT!

Americans are feeling just fine in 1999, thank you very much. Optimism about life in general, not just the stock market, is at historic fever pitch. A recent NBC-Wall Street Journal poll reports that 73% of Americans thought the economy was "good or excellent." Sixty-nine percent said they were better off than they were four years ago.

By definition, things always look worst and darkest at the bottom and best and brightest at the top. When people say, "It just doesn’t get any better than this," they’re right. When things look so bad that they can’t get any worse, they can’t.

Most Americans live sheltered lives, isolated from the underlying social, economic, and political conflicts that permeate the day-to-day existence of the rest of the world. The official US government-defined "poverty level" of about $14,000 a year for a family of four is a life of luxury for the vast majority of people on the planet.

As we’ve discussed throughout 1998 (check the archives), the rest of the world is not a happy place, to say the least. In particular, the disintegration of Russia is perhaps the most significant event of the decade. We’ve only just begun to see the fallout.

The Cold War may be over, but there sure are a lot of pots and tempers boiling over around the world. The National Defense Council Foundation reported last week there are some 60 ongoing "violent" conflicts around the world.

There are 200 or so countries on the planet, depending on how you define a country. Nearly one third of the world is in hostilities with one or more neighbors, in a state of outright civil war, or defending itself against guerrilla insurgency. Of course most of these skirmishes are small and not worthy of front-page mention. But when you look at the big picture, most of Africa, much of the Middle East and the Far East, as well as significant parts of South America and even Europe are at each other’s throats. No wonder Democrat William Jefferson Clinton has proposed an additional $100 billion in defense spending over the next six years. Rodney "Why can’t we all just get along" King, where are you when the world needs you?

"Democracy don’t rule the world,
You’d better get that in your head;
This world is ruled by violence,
But I guess that’s better left unsaid."

Bob DylanBob Dylan, U.S. singer, songwriter. "Union Sundown," on the album Infidels (1983)/

 

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