We continue with our ongoing overall outlook for US stocks: FULL CRASH ALERT! Americans are feeling just fine in 1999, thank you very much. Optimism about life in general, not just the stock market, is at historic fever pitch. A recent NBC-Wall Street Journal poll reports that 73% of Americans thought the economy was "good or excellent." Sixty-nine percent said they were better off than they were four years ago.
Grizzly's Growlings Back Issues
Monday Morning Market Musings 01/11/99
Feelin' Fine in '99
There are some very troublesome undertones to the markets strength of late. The rally has been concentrated in a narrow (and still narrowing) list of blue chips.
As Robert Prechter elaborates upon in this months Elliott Wave Theorist letter, despite the current rally:
- the average stock and average mutual fund is down 4.8% since peaking last April.
the Russell 2000 index is still down 14% from its April high. 1998 was the fifth straight year that at least 80% of equity portfolio managers underperformed the non-managed S&P 500 index. "Internetulip" mania is providing the only real energy for the markets. Amazon.com, Yahoo, EBay, America Online, and their brethren are in classic blow-off mode. Like geysers at Yosemite National Park, no one knows exactly how high and how far they will shoot before running out of steam. And when that pressure stops, theres no support except for the thin mountain air.
Not much happening in the markets Sunday night going into Monday morning trading on Wall Street. The Asian markets are narrowly mixed and Europe is slightly lower. The March S&P 500 futures trading on Globex are off about three points.
By definition, things always look worst and darkest at the bottom and best and brightest at the top. When people say, "It just doesnt get any better than this," theyre right. When things look so bad that they cant get any worse, they cant.
Most Americans live sheltered lives, isolated from the underlying social, economic, and political conflicts that permeate the day-to-day existence of the rest of the world. The official US government-defined "poverty level" of about $14,000 a year for a family of four is a life of luxury for the vast majority of people on the planet.
As weve discussed throughout 1998 (check the archives), the rest of the world is not a happy place, to say the least. In particular, the disintegration of Russia is perhaps the most significant event of the decade. Weve only just begun to see the fallout.
The Cold War may be over, but there sure are a lot of pots and tempers boiling over around the world. The National Defense Council Foundation reported last week there are some 60 ongoing "violent" conflicts around the world.
There are 200 or so countries on the planet, depending on how you define a country. Nearly one third of the world is in hostilities with one or more neighbors, in a state of outright civil war, or defending itself against guerrilla insurgency. Of course most of these skirmishes are small and not worthy of front-page mention. But when you look at the big picture, most of Africa, much of the Middle East and the Far East, as well as significant parts of South America and even Europe are at each others throats. No wonder Democrat William Jefferson Clinton has proposed an additional $100 billion in defense spending over the next six years. Rodney "Why cant we all just get along" King, where are you when the world needs you?
"Democracy dont rule the world,
Grizzly
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