Grizzly's Growlings Current Report

Market Update  10/12/2000

Frantic Friday the 13th?

In last Monday's Grizzly's Growlings report, we went out on the limb (again) and said: 

October should be a month to remember.

The DJIA capped its counter-trend wave 2 rally [on September 6] at 11,500. Since then, the initial stages of wave 3 have been unfolding. So far, it appears that subwave 1 down is in place and counter-trend subwave 2 is nearing completion. 

There may be a few more days of squiggles higher to complete the details of subwave 2, so we'll just have to ride out any short-term rallies. 

What lies directly ahead should be the devastating "third of a third" wave crash, probably some time in the middle of the month.

The NASDAQ Composite Index plunged 311 points (8.5 percent) on the week, to close at 3,361. It is now down a total of 900 points (21 percent) since it peaked at 4,260 on September 1st. The Comp has fallen ten out of the last twelve trading days and stands just 200 points above its May 26th intraday low. Breaking beneath that low of 3,164 should confirm that devastating wave 3 to the downside is in progress. Initial target range for the wave 3 bottom is 2,250-2,500, with lower potential after a solid bounce from that area.

The Dow Jones Industrials have held up somewhat better, falling only a net 50 points (0.5 percent) on the week. The DJIA is also down some 900 points from its secondary high of 11,500 on September 6th. (The all-time high of 11,723 was reached back on January 14, 2000.) A solid break of the March 2000 low of 9,600 should confirm that wave 3 to the downside is in progress for this index as well. Initial target range for the wave 3 bottom is 7,500-8,000, with lower potential after a solid bounce from that area.

The Elliott Wave patterns continue to suggest strongly that there is much more to go on the downside over the coming days through October, interrupted only by short and potentially sharp counter-trend rebounds. For much more detailed information on Elliott Wave technical analysis, please visit the experts at Elliott Wave International.

US STOCKS REMAIN ON FULL CRASH ALERT!

We repeat our investment outlook: 

For aggressive speculators, any short-term strength in the markets hold excellent low-risk entry points to the short side.

For longer-term investors, you may want to have a look at one or more of the mutual funds well-positioned for the down side. Please see our Great Bear Funds Page.

Please also read our disclaimer.

For all you Trekkies out there, William Shatner's beloved "Starship Priceline" has been sucked into a giant black hole. The ship is surrounded by Romulans and is about to be vaporized.

[PCLN] has dematerialized from its post-IPO high of $150 in April 1999 to just over 5 1/2 FCs (Federation Credits), which are worth who knows what. As recently as April 2000 the stock was still running on impulse engines, hovering around 100. 

As you may have noticed (see upper left corner of this page), Priceline.com is a marketing partner with BearMarketCentral.com. We are very saddened to see their demise. Yes, you can still "name your own price" at Priceline, but they have proven that there's a lot more to e-commerce success than a flashy Web site and a celebrity endorsement.

Given Shatner's musical talents, or lack thereof, he may have been singing Priceline's death-knell all along. Most of Captain Kirk's compensation from Priceline is said to have been in the form of stock options. 

"Scotty, beam me up!"

grizzly@bearmarketcentral.com

Please read the disclaimer.

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