"Grizzly's Growlings" Current Report

Market Update  11/11/2000

Post-election Update

As we commented last Monday, the markets were saying that the election was too close to call. Was THAT an understatement!

In this era of palm tops, cell phones and the wireless internet, most elections in the US are still run like they were in the late 19th century: 

• punch cards

• hand-counted votes

• Wizard of Oz voting booths

• shouting and shoving in the streets

• sensationalist media calling the election like a bare-fisted boxing match. (Where's "Gentleman Jim" Corbett when you need him!)

This is the world's foremost democracy? The Italian press called the US "a banana republic." The Brits say we're twits, mired in a mindless constitutional crisis. The Cubans, of all people, have offered (tongue in check we hope) to send election judges to assist!

On Monday we said:

The Street consensus is that the worst is over and that this October will match other Octobers of late and mark a significant and lasting low. The consensus is the traditional year-end rally will begin soon, regardless of the outcome of Tuesday’s elections.

The last thing the Street is expecting is another large leg down in the Bear Market. 

While no one, save perhaps "Ripley's Believe It or Not," could have predicted the outcome of the election (so far), the markets were just looking for an excuse to sell off. Does it really matter that much to Wall Street who is elected? 

Maybe the markets are saying that the Bush-Gore feud may outlast the Hatfields and the McCoys, and may not be settled anytime soon. America itself may get caught in the cross-fire if the feud isn't settled by the Electoral College vote deadline on December 27th. By then, the markets should stand much lower than they do today.

The NASDAQ is in full Bear Market mode, falling 12.2% this week to its lowest point of the year. High-tech bellwethers Dell and Intel were vetoed on Friday, with Dell falling 20% and Intel 10%. 

Looking at the Elliott Wave patterns, the NASDAQ appears to be right at the brink of an historic crash. As shown below, the NASDAQ may be entering the most dramatic and damaging phase of a bear market, the "3rd of a 3rd" wave. 

For much more detailed information on Elliott Wave technical analysis,
please visit the experts at Elliott Wave International

US STOCKS REMAIN ON FULL CRASH ALERT!

It may not happen on Monday. It may not happen next week. It may not happen at all. But the markets are set up perfectly for an historic crash. Be prepared, and we'll keep you posted as the events unfold.

Although another sharp but short-lived reflex rally may interrupt the downdraft at any time, we continue with our ongoing investment outlook: 

For aggressive speculators, any short-term strength in the markets hold excellent low-risk entry points to the short side.

For longer-term investors, you may want to have a look at one or more of the mutual funds well-positioned for the down side. Please see our Great Bear Funds Page.

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Next week should be very interesting!
   

grizzly@bearmarketcentral.com

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