Doug Casey on Poker

(Interviewed by Louis James, Editor, International Speculator)

L: Doug, you often make a point of differentiating speculation from gambling, as in our recent conversation on winning speculations. But I know you also you like to gamble. Poker, specifically. Is that a vice, or a virtue?

Doug: Well, I've always enjoyed poker, ever since I was a kid, actually. Part of the poker experience is sitting around with some friends in an informal environment. But unlike, say, bridge, it lends itself more to smoking, drinking, and pleasant conversations on unrefined topics. Bridge draws a much more straight-laced, even uptight, crowd; alcohol, tobacco, and colorful language are discouraged around a bridge table – which is limited to four people in any event. Bridge didn't grow up in gambling halls and cathouses where the denizens were often armed. Wild Bill Hickcock wouldn't have fit in well at your typical bridge tournament, although, it must be said, that may have extended his life. Poker is, after all, more of a gambler's game than bridge. The luck of the draw is important in both games, of course, and there's a mathematical element in both, albeit a stronger one in bridge. A good memory is also much more important in bridge.

But much more than bridge, poker is a game of psychology – it's one of the most important aspects of the game. It's why there are world-class poker players who almost always win, over the long run, and other players who almost always lose – even though over the long run everybody gets the same cards. With pure gambling games, like roulette and baccarat, everybody loses in the long run.

L: Hm. I never really thought of it that way, but of course, everyone does get the same distribution of probabilities over time… So, what does "psychology" mean in this context? Do you play by looking at people's faces and guessing whether they are bluffing?

Doug: "Reading" the other players sounds romantic.... and there are people who are good at it. The idea is to look for "tells" – quirks in your opponent's personalities, such as squinting when they have high cards, or breaking out in a sweat when they have nothing. But I find it overrated. It's not that people don't have these quirks, but that it's harder than people think to read them in the brief time you have to do it, with people you don't know at all.

The first book on poker I ever read, when I was a kid, was a book by a guy named Herbert W. Yardley, called The Education of a Poker Player. Yardley had actually been a spook, employed by the U.S. government in the 1930s, sent on errands of mischief all around the world – and playing poker all around the world. The most interesting part of the book is in the beginning, when he tells anecdotes about the guy who taught him how to play poker.

Incidentally, the guy's name was Monte, and there's an old adage that you should never play poker with a guy named Monte, nor a guy named Doc. It's always a mistake. [Chuckles] Monte spoke of a game played with some farmer called The Swede with an obvious tell, after which he ended up with the deed to the farm. Horrible, sad story, actually. I don't believe I can read other people's tells reliably. It's an art. It's easier to make sure you don't have a tell others can read.

The standard text on the game today, incidentally, is probably David Sklansky's Sklansky on Poker. Some of his other books are worthy as well. You won't go wrong starting there.

L: So how do you play?

Doug: Well, it's not about what you have in your hand, but what people think you have. Bluffing is very important in poker. But more than occasional bluffing is not a good, long-term strategy. Neither in poker, nor in life. Eventually, somebody is going to call your bluff with the real goods. Or make you think they've got the goods to call your bluff – it's a question of double-reverse psychology sometimes. As an occasional strategy, of course, bluffing can work, because, as I say, it's not about what you have, but what other people think you have.

It's like that old joke about two campers sitting by the campfire. A bear comes out of the woods and charges towards them, and one camper starts putting his shoes on. The other camper screams, "You can't outrun a bear!" And the first camper yells back, "I don't need to outrun the bear, I just need to outrun you!"

L: [laughs]

Doug: [Laughs] Poker's a bit like that. There are many, many forms of poker, of course, but historically, it started out with two main forms. There's five card draw, in which you're dealt five cards, you bet, and you can discard anywhere from none, up to all five cards, and then bet again. And then there's five card stud, in which you're dealt one card face up, one card face down, and then new cards are dealt to each player individually and you bet on each. Then it evolved into seven card stud, and many other variations.

Championship poker, as played today, is Texas Hold ‘em, which is basically seven card stud. You're dealt two cards, face down, and five cards are dealt in the middle, face up, for everyone to include in their hands.

This is played all around the world. Casinos are going up everywhere, encouraged by many governments because they find they can tax casinos more than other businesses. That makes the game even more interesting to me, because you can sit down at a table anywhere in the world with whoever is playing cards, and match your wits against theirs.

L: Okay, I can see that. But back up to the actual playing of the game. If it's not about what anyone has in their hands, but about what people think others have in their hands, does that make it important to learn to communicate false signals? Do people develop false tells so they can set others up and then swoop in for the kill?

Doug: I wish I were good enough to do that! But if you watch really good poker players – and you can see them on television all the time – they typically keep a good "poker face." Many wear dark glasses to disguise what their eyes are doing – which isn't very sociable. The game has actually become a very popular spectator sport around the world. Although it's not a sport. Then again, they call golf and bowling sports, too. Personally, I don't consider something a sport unless you at least have to break a sweat when you're playing…