By David Galland
The Casey Report

We recently received the following comment in our Q&A Knowledge Base:.

Investors should be prepared to sell gold as either increased inflation expectations or doubts around debt sustainability force a sharp increase in US Treasury bond yields. Simply put, in an environment of high real interest rates, the allure of gold could disappear as quickly as it did in the early 1980s when Paul Volcker took control of the Federal Reserve.

My response…

First off, I want to congratulate the reader for trying to anticipate the conditions that might mark the end of the gold bull market. Because, make no mistake, the gold bull market will come to an end – and when it does, it’s not going to be pretty for those who stubbornly stay too long at the party.

As to the possible triggers for gold’s big sell-off, the reader’s contention is directionally correct when he points out that this could occur when real interest rates (T-bill rates minus CPI) become high enough. At that point, as a non-yielding asset, gold will become less attractive to investors looking for income. And, gold will fall. 

However, the situation today is significantly different than during Volcker’s term as the head of the Fed.

The first difference can be seen in the chart here that I just dredged out of the archives of The Casey Report. Besides painting a picture that many of you will think obvious – that inflation is the biggest driver of interest rates – you can also see that gold’s stunning rise in the second half of the 1970s occurred during a period of strongly rising interest rates. So, rising interest rates and rising gold prices are not mutually exclusive.

The second difference between now and then becomes clear in the next chart showing that while there certainly was an inflation problem during Volcker’s reign, there definitely was not a debt problem. At least not compared to today.

The implications of the nation’s current debt load loom large in this discussion. Aggressively raising interest rates, as Volcker did back in the day, would not just dent today’s U.S. economy, it would destroy it. As it would evaporate a significant amount of the trillions of dollars now sitting in government debt, much of it held by pensioners.

Put another way, Volcker raised interest rates as energetically as he did because he could. Today, that couldn’t happen – at least not without pushing the U.S. economy into a death spiral. That’s why we’ve long compared the scenario faced by today’s policy makers to being stuck between “a rock and a hard place.”

While the smoking ruin solution I wrote about a few weeks ago – where the government steps aside and lets the free market do its worst, so that it can then do its best – is certainly possible, the more likely scenario is that the Treasury and the Fed will keep reacting to each new chapter in the crisis by further degrading the currency in the hopes that at some point the debt becomes manageable. Of course, there is the real risk that at some point along the path, our creditors will lose faith and demand higher interest rates.

But what happens if interest rates begin to move up based on credit concerns, and not in response to a noticeable uptick in price inflation? At that point, couldn’t we see positive real interest rates relative to CPI – therefore reducing gold’s appeal?

If interest rates begin to rise for any reason – including concerns over creditworthiness – the obvious damage to the economy and to the government’s ability to service its debts will only heighten concerns over repayment. Almost overnight, creditors will begin to fear either overt debt defaults or the covert default of yet more inflation, and demand even higher rates.

At that point, with interest rates beginning to spiral, few people will be looking to buy bonds but will remain fixated on the return of capital, versus return on capital.
Being repetitious, debt is the single biggest economic challenge facing the U.S. – and much of the developed world. In time this debt will get resolved, it always does, but it’s not going to be pretty.

As I see it, unlike the inflation of the 1970s that could be treated with a strong dose of tight monetary policy, the debtflation we now face can only be resolved through default. Given that no U.S. government will want to join the ranks of history’s sovereign deadbeats, the inflation option remains the most likely course.

And in that scenario, gold is still a solid investment and so should be a core portfolio holding.

The Casey Report focuses on big-picture investing – analyzing emerging mega-trends and their effects on the economy and markets… and recommending the best ways to profit from those trends, whether they’re positive or negative. Learn more about the editors’ favorite investment of 2010. 

© 2010 Casey Research

The Casey Research web site & Kitco Casey web site, Casey’s Investment Alert, Casey's International Speculator, Casey's Gold & Resource Report, Casey’s Energy Confidential, Casey's Energy Report, Casey’s Energy Opportunities, Casey's Trend Trader, The Casey Report, Casey's Extraordinary Technology, Conversations With Casey, and Casey's Daily Dispatch are published by Casey Research, LLC. Information contained in such publications is obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy cannot be guaranteed. The information contained in such publications is not intended to constitute individual investment advice and is not designed to meet your personal financial situation. The opinions expressed in such publications are those of the publisher and are subject to change without notice. The information in such publications may become outdated and there is no obligation to update any such information.

Doug Casey, Casey Research, LLC, Casey Early Opportunity Resource Fund, LLC and other entities in which he has an interest, employees, officers, family, and associates may from time to time have positions in the securities or commodities covered in these publications or web site. Corporate policies are in effect that attempt to avoid potential conflicts of interest and resolve conflicts of interest that do arise in a timely fashion.

Any Casey publication or web site and its content and images, as well as all copyright, trademark and other rights therein, are owned by Casey Research, LLC. No portion of any Casey publication or web site may be extracted or reproduced without permission of Casey Research, LLC. Nothing contained herein shall be construed as conferring any license or right under any copyright, trademark or other right of Casey Research, LLC. Unauthorized use, reproduction or rebroadcast of any content of any Casey publication or web site, including communicating investment recommendations in such publication or web site to non-subscribers in any manner, is prohibited and shall be considered an infringement and/or misappropriation of the proprietary rights of Casey Research, LLC.

Casey Research, LLC reserves the right to cancel any subscription at any time, and if it does so it will promptly refund to the subscriber the amount of the subscription payment previously received relating to the remaining subscription period. Cancellation of a subscription may result from any unauthorized use or reproduction or rebroadcast of any Casey publication or website, any infringement or misappropriation of Casey Research, LLC's proprietary rights, or any other reason determined in the sole discretion of Casey Research, LLC. © 1998-2010 by Casey Research, LLC.