By David Galland
Casey Research

Last month gold broke into new record territory – reaching an all-time high of $1,387 on October 14. A new record in nominal terms, that is. To top the previous high in inflation-adjusted dollars, gold will have to approximately double from there.

Silver, however, has barely made it halfway back to its prior nominal high of $49.45 an ounce, achieved on January 21, 1980. In order to break into new territory in inflation-adjusted dollars (using the same CPI calculation methodology used in 1980), silver would have to rise to over $250 an ounce – more than ten times where it is today.

Here are some other useful facts about silver:

Due to the fact that silver’s industrial applications result in destroying the stuff, there is currently a total of only 1,234,590,000 “investable” ounces of silver in aboveground supplies. At $21 per ounce, the total value of aboveground silver comes to only about $26 billion.

By contrast, because pretty much every ounce of gold ever mined still exists, there are a total of 4,585,620,000 “investable” ounces of gold in aboveground stocks. At $1,330 per ounce, that comes to $6 trillion worth.

Thus, the silver/gold ratio is currently about 63:1, yet the total value of all the investable gold on the planet is about 235 times that of silver.

For the record, the ratio of silver to gold in the earth’s crust is 17:1. That’s in the ballpark of the 15:1 average silver/gold price ratio that has held sway over the centuries.

Kicking off his presentation at our recent Gold & Resource Summit, Bob Quartermain, the powerhouse behind Silver Standard (SSO), stated that if the audience took nothing else away from his talk, it should be that the demand for silver well exceeds new mine supply, and has for some time.

For instance, in 2009 total silver demand topped 889 million ounces, outstripping new mine supplies of 710 million ounces. The difference was made up by scrap recycling.

Of course, the real pressure going forward is from investment demand, which has been a fraction of that for gold. If history is any guide, however, as gold becomes viewed as being too expensive for the "common man," silver sales will soar.

The following chart from Quartermain’s presentation helps put things into perspective.

Furthermore, if you agree with our contention that the economic crisis will continue, and that China’s propped-up manufacturing sector will come under serious pressure, it’s also logical to assume that demand for industrial metals such as lead, zinc, and copper will fall. That’s important in the discussion of silver, because only 30% of silver’s production comes from primary producers (i.e., silver mines), with the balance produced only as a byproduct of other minerals.

Of the total new mine supply, fully 57% is associated with base metals production.

As it, too, has industrial applications, demand for silver from manufacturers will also falter, but given the existing deficit in supplies, the surge in investor demand, and silver’s growing use as a “green” metal (50 to 60 million ounces used up in solar energy applications in 2010 alone) and as an antibacterial agent, the overall supply/demand picture remains favorable.

The truly miniscule amount of silver available above ground and its relatively modest price gains over the course of the precious metals bull market so far are what set the stage for it to play a quick game of catch-up to gold in the months just ahead.

And when silver does a runner, the handful of pure play silver companies – producers and juniors that have identified large deposits – will do the equivalent of a moon shot.

Just a heads up on something to pay attention to, especially on days when the precious metals take a breather from their steady ascent.

[In times of crisis like these, it’s only prudent to protect your assets by buying silver, gold, and related investments. Large-cap mining stocks have proven to keep – and even increase – their value even during the Great Depression, when most other stocks plummeted. Try BIG GOLD, the go-to advisory for sound precious metals investments, risk-free today. Learn more.

© 2010 Casey Research

The Casey Research web site & Kitco Casey web site, Casey’s Investment Alert, Casey's International Speculator, Casey's Gold & Resource Report, Casey’s Energy Confidential, Casey's Energy Report, Casey’s Energy Opportunities, Casey's Trend Trader, The Casey Report, Casey's Extraordinary Technology, Conversations With Casey, and Casey's Daily Dispatch are published by Casey Research, LLC. Information contained in such publications is obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy cannot be guaranteed. The information contained in such publications is not intended to constitute individual investment advice and is not designed to meet your personal financial situation. The opinions expressed in such publications are those of the publisher and are subject to change without notice. The information in such publications may become outdated and there is no obligation to update any such information.

Doug Casey, Casey Research, LLC, Casey Early Opportunity Resource Fund, LLC and other entities in which he has an interest, employees, officers, family, and associates may from time to time have positions in the securities or commodities covered in these publications or web site. Corporate policies are in effect that attempt to avoid potential conflicts of interest and resolve conflicts of interest that do arise in a timely fashion.

Any Casey publication or web site and its content and images, as well as all copyright, trademark and other rights therein, are owned by Casey Research, LLC. No portion of any Casey publication or web site may be extracted or reproduced without permission of Casey Research, LLC. Nothing contained herein shall be construed as conferring any license or right under any copyright, trademark or other right of Casey Research, LLC. Unauthorized use, reproduction or rebroadcast of any content of any Casey publication or web site, including communicating investment recommendations in such publication or web site to non-subscribers in any manner, is prohibited and shall be considered an infringement and/or misappropriation of the proprietary rights of Casey Research, LLC.

Casey Research, LLC reserves the right to cancel any subscription at any time, and if it does so it will promptly refund to the subscriber the amount of the subscription payment previously received relating to the remaining subscription period. Cancellation of a subscription may result from any unauthorized use or reproduction or rebroadcast of any Casey publication or website, any infringement or misappropriation of Casey Research, LLC's proprietary rights, or any other reason determined in the sole discretion of Casey Research, LLC. © 1998-2010 by Casey Research, LLC.