Grizzly's Daily Growl Wed. 01/31/01  6:00 PM EST
The old adage "be careful what you wish for, you may receive it" came true in spades Wednesday, as Sir Alan of Greenspan delivered what The Street has been longing for, a 50 basis point cut in the federal funds rate. As we've been saying for a week now, the 50 basis point cut by the Fed was about as widely as expected as Santa Claus on December 25th, and that since everyone knew it was coming, the rate cut was fully discounted into the market. 

Following the 2:15 PM announcement by the Feds, the DJIA jerked up and down and ended up a meager 6 points. The Nasdaq took the Fed's decree right on the chin, falling 66 points and closing right at the low of the day.

Today's market report at CNNfn.com was entitled "Stocks: What rate cut? The Fed's balm doesn't work Wednesday, but analysts remain bullish." The key phrase is "analysts remain bullish." As long as they're still bullish following a day like today, the odds favor the next leg of the Great Bear resuming, just about now.   Grizzly

Grizzly's Daily Growl Tues. 01/30/01  6:00 PM EST
For the last few days, we've been saying that a 50 basis point interest rate cut by the Fed is about as widely as expected as Santa Claus on December 25th, and since everyone knows it is coming, the rate cut is fully discounted into the market.

Today, speculators upped the ante significantly, at least on the DJIA, in the hope that the Fed will cut rates by even more than the 50 basis points already built into the market. So now, with about 20 hours to go before the Fed sends down the stone tablets to the faithful at the base of the mountain, the markets are set up perfectly and completely for disappointment.

While the DJIA soared 179 points Tuesday, the Nasdaq didn't budge an inch. In that great poker game of Wall Street, the Nasdaq decided not to call the DJIA's and the Fed's big bet. We'll know by Wednesday afternoon if it was just a bluff.    Grizzly

Grizzly's Daily Growl Mon. 01/29/01  6:00 PM EST
Monday was one for the history books, as all exchanged-traded issues are now fully quoted and traded in dollars and cents. At last, no more trying to figure out the exact value of 13/16th! Gone are the days of buying and selling a stock at 6 and 19/32nds! The Nasdaq will go to "dollars and sense" later this spring.

The markets moved ahead modestly Monday, biding their time until Sir Alan of Greenspan says something profound in the next few days. Our bet is Sir Alan will indeed meet market expectations and reduce interest rates by 50 basis points. However, this rate cut is fully discounted into the market and will likely produce another 'buy the rumor, sell the news' event, as we saw with the Fed's January 3rd rate cut.

The DJIA added 42 points Monday, closing just above 10,700 and recovering much of Friday's 69 point loss. The Nasdaq gained 56 points. Volume was relatively light, with many participants remaining on the sidelines in anticipation of Sir Alan's decree. Once Sir Alan's Royal Sideshow is out of the way, the coast should be cleared for both the DJIA and the Nasdaq to resume the next leg of the Great Bear.    Grizzly

Grizzly's Daily Growl Fri. 01/26/01  6:00 PM EST
On the heels of Sir Alan of Greenspan's congressional testimony Thursday and some very disappointing earnings reports from PMC-Sierra, Ericsson and others, the markets opened Friday sharply lower, with the DJIA stumbling over 100 points and the Nasdaq over 50 shortly after the open.

From there, the markets meandered higher and the DJIA managed to cut its loss to 69 points while the Nasdaq rebounded, ending up 27 points.

The markets may bide their time in anticipation of the Fed meetings next week, but both the DJIA and the Nasdaq appear to be ready to resume the next leg of the Great Bear.   Grizzly

Grizzly's Daily Growl Thurs. 01/25/01  6:00 PM EST
Federal Reserve Chairman Sir Alan of Greenspan treated his groupies on Capital Hill and The Street to more of his patented "Greenspeak" Thursday, with each word carefully chosen for its potential ambiguity and ambivalence.

Investors in the DJIA heard what they wanted from Sir Alan and promptly pushed the index up 82 points, though it closed 50 points off its session highs. Investors in the Nasdaq heard something very different from Sir Alan and promptly drove that index down 105 points.

Who's right? Neither? Both? We don't know and we think it really doesn't matter beyond today's trading. Both the DJIA and the Nasdaq appear to be ready to resume the next leg of the Great Bear tomorrow.      Grizzly

Grizzly's Daily Growl Wed. 01/24/01  6:00 PM EST
NOTE: Cybertermites and various other vermin have been nibbling on our Web server over the past few days. We apologize for the inconvenience, and thank you for your patience.

Not much action on The Street Wednesday as the DJIA slipped 3 points and the Nasdaq gained 19. Microsoft gained 2 3/8 despite the fact that most of its Internet services have been offline for much of the past 24 hours. Seems like the cybertermites are making the rounds.

Federal Reserve Chairman Sir Alan of Greenspan will testify before the Senate Banking Committee on Thursday, so we may see some volatility if Sir Alan says something profound. Maybe, but not likely.    Grizzly

Grizzly's Daily Growl Tues. 01/23/01  6:00 PM EST
The Nasdaq surged ahead 82 points Tuesday and pushed its recovery rally to the highest levels in six weeks. The DJIA moved up 71 points to the high end of the trading range it's been in for the past two weeks.

Investors are buying in wide anticipation of next week's Federal Reserve meeting and the almost certain half-point cut in interest rates. The Street consensus is that all the bad news on corporate earnings is out and that Sir Alan of Greenspan & Co. have already saved the day.

Again, as with the Fed's "surprise" interest rate cuts on January 3rd, we think the markets are setting up for a "buy the rumor, sell the news" opportunity, or something potentially worse if the Fed disappoints the Street with "only" a quarter-point cut.    Grizzly

Grizzly's Daily Growl Mon. 01/22/01  6:00 PM EST
The markets welcomed President George W. Bush into office Monday with a great big ho-hum. The DJIA continued in a sideways consolidation pattern, bouncing around a bit during the day but ending off only nine points. The DJIA is still holding above our downside breakout level of 10,450. Any breach thereof should trigger an avalanche of selling, bringing the DJIA quickly toward, and eventually below, last year's low of 9,600.

The Nasdaq slipped about 12 points Monday while the S&P 500 managed to eek out a fractional gain. Things should be much more exciting on Tuesday.     Grizzly

Grizzly's Daily Growl Fri. 01/19/01  6:00 PM EST
The DJIA fell over 100 points shortly after the open Friday and then bounced around in a consolidation pattern the rest of the day. The DJIA ended down 91 points, giving back nearly all of Thursday's 96 point IBM-inspired gain. Today it was Microsoft's turn to roar ahead by slightly exceeding analyst's expectations for its earnings, yet you wouldn't know that MS gained 5 1/2 points on the day by looking at the DJIA.

The DJIA is still holding above our downside breakout level of 10,450. Any breach thereof should trigger an avalanche of selling, bringing the DJIA quickly toward and eventually below last year's low of 9,600. More often than not, consolidation patterns like we saw today are followed by a sharp breakdown, thus adding to the potential for some spectacular fireworks to the downside early next week.

The Nasdaq managed to eek out a one point gain, closing near its low of the day. Have a great weekend!    Grizzly

Grizzly's Daily Growl Thurs. 01/18/01  6:00 PM EST
The markets powered ahead Thursday, inspired by IBM. It appears that IBM succeeded today where Intel failed yesterday. So what was IBM's achievement? It surpassed analyst's expectations for earnings by a grand total of .... two cents a share.

The Nasdaq scored an 86 point gain and the DJIA closed up 94 points on the day at 10,678, though off about 60 points from its mid-afternoon high. IBM's $11 advance accounting for the bulk of the DJIA's gain. 

Investor exuberance over positive earnings "surprises" such as we saw today with IBM was the status quo one year ago, right at the all-time peak in the DJIA and just ahead of the Nasdaq's grand fall from grace.     Grizzly

Grizzly's Daily Growl Wed. 01/17/01  6:00 PM EST
The question we posed yesterday was: Will the markets build on Wednesday's expected opening rally or will it reverse quickly, as it did following January 3rd's big Greenspan spike?

On the heels of Intel's "good" earnings report late Tuesday, the overnight futures all pointed sharply higher. The markets indeed were pumped at the open. Intel, which is a component of both the Nasdaq Composite and the Dow Jones Industrial Average, opened up 1 5/8 at $33. INTC then promptly reversed and slid all day on huge volume of 112 million shares. The stock closed down 7/8 at $30 1/2, which is less than a point above its 52-week high. So much for the Intel earnings rally.

Sparked by Intel, the Nasdaq opened up about 100 points and pushed its way to up 150 by late morning, only to reverse and give back more than half of that advance. The Nasdaq closed the day up 68 points at 2,682.

In a mirror image of Tuesday's results, the DJIA was unable to ride the Nasdaq's coat-tails today. The DJIA opened only a bit higher, bounced around for an hour, and then began a slide that took it down 68 points by the close. We're still looking for a clear and solid break of 10,450 to confirm that the next leg of the Great Bear is underway. Thursday may give us that signal.    Grizzly

Grizzly's Daily Growl Tues. 01/16/01  6:00 PM EST
The DJIA surged ahead 127 points Tuesday, more than reversing last Friday's 84 point loss. We're still looking for a clear and solid break of 10,450 to confirm that the next leg of the Great Bear is underway. 

The Nasdaq was unable to ride the DJIA's coat-tails as it slipped eight points on the day. Nasdaq's brief hot streak last week was probably NOT the start of an extended bull run, but mostly likely a typical counter-trend bounce that allows the Great Bear to catch his breath and get ready for the next down leg.

Wednesday likely will see a bounce at the open, as the markets heave a sigh of relief and embrace Intel's earnings report. The question is can the markets build on such "good news," or will any rally be quickly reversed as it was with January 3rd's Greenspan spike.    Grizzly

Grizzly's Daily Growl Fri. 01/12/01  6:00 PM EST
The DJIA slipped and slid 140 points Friday before yet another late-day rebound brought it back to close the day down only 84 points at 10,525. For the week, the DJIA edged down 1.3%. We've been saying all week that the DJIA is at a critical short-term crossroads. It may have tipped its hand with Friday's loss, but it will take a clear and solid break of 10,450 to confirm that the next leg of the Great Bear is underway. The next stop for the DJIA will be below last year's low of 9,600.

The Nasdaq fared much better than the Dow this week, ending its three-day winning streak with a 14 point loss on Friday, but still gaining 9% for the week. This brief hot streak was probably NOT the start of an extended bull run, but mostly likely a typical counter-trend bounce that allows the Great Bear to catch his breath and get ready for the next down leg. After all, the Nasdaq plunged nearly 2,000 points (47%) in the past four months.

U.S. markets will be closed Monday in observance of Martin Luther King Day. Have a great weekend and we'll talk to you Tuesday. Grizzly

Grizzly's Daily Growl Thurs. 01/11/01  6:00 PM EST
The Nasdaq finally scored a hat-trick on Thursday. For you non-hockey fans out there, that’s three winning days in a row, something it hasn’t been able to do since a five-day streak that ended last September 1st. Most pundits on Wall Street see this new streak as a good thing; a sign of strength, momentum and confidence. What they’re forgetting is that the prior streak that ended September 1st was a major top, not the start of an extended bull run. From that peak of 4,234, the Nasdaq plunged nearly 2,000 points (47%) into the recent bottom last week. You decide, is a hat-trick bullish or bearish?

The DJIA, which had been down moderately most of the session,  managed to eek out a 5 point gain on the day. The DJIA remains at a critical short-term crossroads and so far it's still trying to decide which fork to take. The DJIA will likely tip its hand by Monday.

Keep an eye on the Tokyo market overnight, it's very close to breaking to lows it hasn't seen in 15 year!    Grizzly

Grizzly's Daily Growl Wed. 01/10/01  6:00 PM EST
The DJIA broke a four-session losing streak Wednesday with a modest advance of 31 points. The DJIA did dip its toes below support down to 10,472 before rebounding late in the day. As we said yesterday, the DJIA is at a critical short-term crossroads and so far it's still trying to decide which fork to take. The DJIA will likely tip its hand by the end of the week.

The Nasdaq surged 82 points, its best performance since last week's Greenspan rally. The strength of this counter-trend rally so far suggests it may have a bit more to go on the upside before the next leg of the Great Bear takes hold.   Grizzly

Grizzly's Daily Growl Tuesday 01/09/01  6:00 PM EST
Tuesday produced the opening pop we were looking for, but that was about all there was to the upside for the day. The DJIA promptly gave back all of the early gains and then some before bouncing off support near 10,525 and ending the day down 48. 

The Nasdaq held up much better, thanks to strength in New Economy blue chips Yahoo, eBay and Amazon, all of which rebounded about 10% today after being battered in recent days. The Nasdaq has recovered about 150 of the 350 points it lost in the post-Greenspan slide, and may still have a bit more to go on the upside Wednesday.

The DJIA is at a crucial crossroad. It has successfully bounced off the 10,525-10,600 area several times so far this year. When it finally cracks, which we think it soon will, "looooookkkk ouuuuuuutttttt beeeellllooooowwww!!!"    Grizzly

Grizzly's Daily Growl 01/08/01  6:00 PM EST
Last Wednesday's Greenspan rally is now but a faded and foggy memory. Did it really happen, or was it just an illusion? The markets were down sharply most of the day Monday until a last half-hour rally yanked the averages up from the session lows. The DJIA ended the day down 40 and the Nasdaq, which had shed over 100, bounced strongly off 2,300 and ended down only 11 points. Late-day rallies such as Monday's often lead to follow-through the next morning, so Tuesday probably will see a pop at the open. We'll to keep an eye on DJIA 10,525 (today's low) and Nasdaq 2,275-2,300 support levels for clues as to when the next leg of the Great Bear will take hold."    Grizzly.

Grizzly's Daily Growl 01/05/01  6:00 PM EST
Our question following Wednesday's Greenspan spike has been: can the markets hold these gains or is this just another excellent entry point for short-sellers? Friday confirmed the latter, as the DJIA gave back virtually all of Wednesday's rally and closed down 1.1% on the four-day week. Despite Wednesday's record 14% rally, the Nasdaq's 6.2% plunge on Friday left it down a net 2.5% for the week. Wednesday's pre-Greenspan lows around 10,600 on the DJIA and 2,275 on the Nasdaq are now critical support areas. If broken, "Looooookkkk ouuuuuuutttttt beeeellllooooowwww!!!" Have a great weekend!   Grizzly.

Grizzly's Daily Growl 01/04/01  6:00 PM EST
Wednesday we said look for "consolidation and digestion of today's gains." Thursday saw some of that indigestion as the Nasdaq gave back nearly 2%. The question remains: can the markets hold Wednesday's gains or is this just another excellent entry point for short-sellers? Stay tuned for more wild volatility, and see this month's Grizzly's Growlings Report.      Grizzly

Grizzly's Daily Growl 01/03/01  5:00 PM EST
Tuesday we said "the Nasdaq is now looking short-term oversold and a brief counter-trend rally should ensue..." WOW what a rally, thanks in no small part to Sir Alan of Greenspan. The DJIA shot up 299 points and the NASDAQ ripped ahead a one-day record 14 percent. The question is, can the markets hold these gains or is this just another excellent entry point for short-sellers? Market internals went from oversold to overbought in a matter of hours, so Thursday likely will see consolidation and digestion of today's gains. Stay tuned for more wild volatility and see this month's Grizzly's Growlings Report.    Grizzly

Grizzly's Daily Growl 01/02/01  4:00 PM EST
The Great Bear takes another bite as the markets greet 2001 with a big downer. The NASDAQ plunges 178 points (7.2%) Tuesday, and is now looking short-term oversold. So, a brief counter-trend rally should ensue before the next leg of the Bear takes hold.
2001: A Bear's Odyssey is off to a flying start. See this month's Grizzly's Growlings Report. Happy New Year to Bears and Bulls alike!   Grizzly

Grizzly's Daily Growl 01/02/01  7:00 AM EST
What kind of odyssey will the markets take in 2001? See this month's Grizzly's Growlings Report. Happy New Year to Bears and Bulls alike!   Grizzly