Grizzly's Daily Growl  Fri. 03/29/01  10:00 PM EST
Wall Street celebrated the end of a disastrous quarter (for the bulls anyway) with another choppy and unimpressive rally. The Nasdaq tried to spoil the party when it briefly dropped below 1,800. From there, it bounced to close up 19.69 points (1%) at 1,840. The DJIA fared almost as well, advancing 80 points (0.8%) to 9,879.

The Nasdaq lost a stunning 25.5 percent in the quarter, by far its worst quarter ever. The S&P 500's 12 percent quarterly loss was its worst since 1987. The DJIA fared best, losing "only" 8.4 percent.

The first quarter was devastating to the bulls. Even their hero, Sir Alan of Greenspan, could not stop the Great Bear Market of 2000-200[?]. Sir Al and his pals cut interest rates three times in the quarter. The Great Bear gobbled up the rate cuts like honey from a hive.

The markets are at an interesting juncture to open the next quarter. The DJIA has now bounced off 9,700 three times in the last two days. Any break thereof should now usher in the next leg of decline. At a minimum, another several hundred points would be at risk for both the DJIA and the Nasdaq. 

If last Thursday's DJIA low of 9,107 is taken out, then "loooookkkkkk ouuuuutttttt beeeeellllloooooooow!" The rest of the markets will go along for the wild ride. Alternatively, if the DJIA can rebound back above 10,000 and hold it, then it will have won a temporary reprieve from the next leg of the decline.

Please take a moment to give us your thoughts on where you think the Nasdaq is headed. Cast your vote in our online poll.

Where are the markets headed in the second quarter of 2001? Check back Monday morning for a full Grizzly's Growling Report.  Have a great weekend!   Grizzly

Grizzly's Daily Growl  Thurs. 03/28/01  10:00 PM EST
The Nasdaq took center stage again today as another round of tech company earnings warnings rattled investor confidence. The Nasdaq lost another 33.56 points (1.8%), adding to Wednesday's 118 points (6%) mini-crash. Volume matched Wednesday's 2 billion shares. Again today, each rally attempt was met with strong selling, though a last-hour rebound did trim the Nasdaq's loss by another 18 points. The Nasdaq now stands at 1,820, a new 29-month low and down 64% from the mania peak just over one year ago. 

The DJIA followed the Nasdaq most of the day, and the last-hour rally brought the DJIA back from a loss of 110 points to close in the green by 14 points at 9,979. The DJIA has now bounced off 9,700 three times in the last two days. Any break thereof should now usher in the next leg of decline. At a minimum, another several hundred points would be at risk for both the DJIA and the Nasdaq. If last Thursday's DJIA low of 9,107 is taken out, then "loooookkkkkk ouuuuutttttt beeeeellllloooooooow!" The rest of the markets will go along for the wild ride. Alternatively, if the DJIA can rebound back above 10,000, then it will have won a temporary reprieve.

To repeat our ongoing outlook, "for both the DJIA and Nasdaq, the Elliott Wave patterns are indicating that there's still much more to go on the downside for the Great Bear. We firmly believe that a new bull market has not begun."

Please take a moment to give us your thoughts on where you think the Nasdaq is headed. Cast your vote in our new online poll, just up and to the left of this column.   Grizzly

Grizzly's Daily Growl  Wed. 03/27/01  10:00 PM EST
As anticipated from Tuesday's after-hours earnings shockers from Nortel and Palm and the sharply lower overnight futures, the markets opened sharply lower. The DJIA gave back almost exactly the 260 points it gained on Tuesday as it plunged to 9,695 at 11:30 AM EST. From there the DJIA mounted an unimpressive and choppy recovery to close the day at 9,785, down 162 points (1.6%).

The Nasdaq took it even harder today, mini-crashing 118 points (6%) to close at 1,854. The Nasdaq fell steadily throughout the day and couldn't rally more than a handful of points before sellers stormed in again. Volume surged to 2 billion shares on the Nasdaq.

As we said yesterday, the counter-trend rally from last Thursday's spike low may have topped, and today's action certainly looked and felt like the start of the next leg of the downturn. At a minimum, another several hundred points are at risk for both the DJIA and the Nasdaq. If last Thursday's DJIA low of 9,107 is taken out, then "loooookkkkkkouuuuutttttt beeeeellllloooooooow!" The rest of the markets will go along for the ride.

Over in Japan, the Nikkei 225 is trading down 428 points (3.1%) in early trading. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures are a few points below fair value in early evening trading, so the bulls are not mounting much of a stand for tomorrow morning.

To repeat our ongoing outlook, "for both the DJIA and Nasdaq, the Elliott Wave patterns are indicating that there's still much more to go on the downside for the Great Bear. We firmly believe that a new bull market has not begun."

Please take a moment to give us your thoughts on where you think the Nasdaq is headed. Cast your vote in our new online poll, just up and to the left of this column.   Grizzly

Grizzly's Daily Growl  Tues. 03/27/01  8:00 PM EST
The bounce off of last Thursday's spike lows has evolved into a buying frenzy. Such rapid reversals from widespread bearishness to near-panic bullishness is typical of a counter-trend bear market rally. The DJIA surged another 260 points (2.7%) to close at 9,947 and the Nasdaq jumped 54 points (2.8%) to close at 1,972. 

The DJIA has rebounded about 850 points over the last 3 1/2 days, retracing just about half of the 1,700 point decline from March 8 through last Thursday. A 50% retracement level is quite common. In Elliott Wave terms, it looks like a classic three leg A-B-C counter-trend rally from last Thursday's 9,107 low is complete or nearly so. Today may mark the peak of the rally. If not, both 10,000 - 10,100 on the DJIA and 2,000 - 2,100 on the Nasdaq should provide formidable resistance and will likely halt the rally.

After the market close, Palm Inc. issued one of those nasty earnings warnings and is down 30% in after-hours trading. Both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures are trading below cash value in early evening trading. This is a rare and usually bearish omen, perhaps leading the way to a sharp reversal Wednesday morning.

To repeat from the last few days, "for both the DJIA and Nasdaq, the Elliott Wave patterns are indicating that there's still much more to go on the downside for the Great Bear. We firmly believe that a new bull market has not begun."

Please take a moment to give us your thoughts on where you think the Nasdaq is headed. Cast your vote in our new online poll, just up and to the left of this column.   Grizzly

Grizzly's Daily Growl  Mon. 03/26/01  8:00 PM EST
As we've discussed over the past few days, the big question facing the markets of course is, did Thursday's mini-crash low mark a solid and lasting bottom? 

The DJIA surged another 183 points (1.2%) Monday to close at 9,688. Intra-day, the DJIA has rebounded some 650 points from last Thursday's low. So, it does appear that at least a short-term bottom was put in place. As we've repeated over the past year, bear market rallies tend to be very sharp but short-lived, and the rally currently underway should be no exception. 

Given the sharp rise so far, at least a couple of days of pullback should be next. A break back below 9,107 would signal that the counter-trend rally is over and that another leg of the Great Bear Market of 2000-2001 was underway. 

The Nasdaq struggled all day as the recently red-hot tech sector cooled off. The Nasdaq closed off 10 points (.5%) at 1,918. We'll probably see more weakness in the Nasdaq over the next few days as another round of earnings warnings ripple through The Street. 

For both the DJIA and Nasdaq, the Elliott Wave patterns are indicating that there's still much more to go on the downside for the Great Bear, though a pause here may be necessary. We firmly believe that a new bull market has not begun.

Yet again tomorrow, all eyes will be on Sir Alan of Greenspan, as he delivers a speech to the National Association of Business Economists. Sir Alan will no doubt be on his way to another Academy Award in the category of "Using a Whole Lot of Fancy Words to Say Not a Lot.   Grizzly

Grizzly's Daily Growl  Sat. 03/24/01  12:00 PM EST
As we anticipated for Friday, the markets delivered some choppy follow-through to Thursday's late rally. The DJIA worked its way up 115 points (1.2%) to close at 9,505. The Nasdaq broke its seven-week losing streak with a 31 point (1.6%) gain to close just under 1,929. For this wild week, the DJIA lost 3% but the Nasdaq gained 2%. 

After the DJIA's 16% short-term plunge from 10,858 on March 8th to Thursday's spike low of 9,107, and really the entire year-long 63% crash in the Nasdaq, the Great Bear seems to finally have ran out of gas. Thursday's action did show some signs of the panic and capitulation that typically mark solid lows. Shorts were covered and margin calls were liquidated. Mutual fund redemptions picked up. Thursday's NYSE volume was the third highest on record at 1.7 billion shares. A lot of towels were thrown in, but not enough to generate that elusive historic one-day crash. Indeed, the markets seem to have weathered the risk of that crash, at least for this leg of the Great Bear Market of 2000-2001.

The big question of course is, did Thursday's mini-crash low mark a solid and lasting bottom? The few remaining bulls on The Street have begun chanting their mantra: "the bottom is in, the bottom is in..." If the DJIA can muster another 100 points or so of rally and cross back above 9,600, then the odds will increase that a short-term bottom indeed has been achieved.

We sure don't know how big a rally will unfold at this point, but we're definitely not convinced that the bottom is in. Whatever rally the markets are able to muster here will likely be just a temporary counter-trend bounce within the Great Bear Market. For both the DJIA and Nasdaq, the Elliott Wave patterns are indicating that there's still more to go on the downside for this leg of the Great Bear, though a pause here may be necessary. A new bull market has not begun.

Have a great weekend!     Grizzly 

Grizzly's Daily Growl  Thurs. 03/22/01  8:00 PM EST
WOW what a day! The DJIA continued the massive sell-off of the last two weeks on Thursday. By 2:30 PM EST, the DJIA was down 380 points and it knocked on 9,100. No one was home except short-coverers and bargain-hunters. They stormed into the market and mounted a ferocious 350 point rally in just 1 1/2 hours. The DJIA slipped about 60 points in the final few minutes of trading to close at 9,389, down 97 points (1%) on the day. 

The DJIA has now fallen sharply seven out of the last ten trading days. From the close on March 8th at 10,858, the DJIA has plunged an incredible 1,750 points (16%) to today's intra-day low at 9,107. The Bear finally ran out of gas this afternoon. While not exactly an historic crash, such a beating over only ten days demonstrates the devastating appetite of a Great Bear Market.

Twice today the Nasdaq briefly dipped below 1,800 before the beaten-down tech stocks rallied strongly. The Nasdaq closed the day up 67 points (3.7%) at 1,898. 

Friday may see some carry-through to upside as traders breath a huge sigh of relief and start chanting their mantra: "the bottom is in, the bottom is in..." If the DJIA can muster another 200 points or so of rally and cross back above 9,600, then the odds will increase that a short-term bottom indeed has been achieved.

The Great Bear definitely needs a break, but we're definitely not convinced that THE bottom is in. For both the DJIA and Nasdaq, the Elliott Wave patterns are saying there's still more to go on the downside for this leg of the Great Bear, though a pause here may be necessary. Stay tuned!

NOTE: Barring an all-out crash on Friday, the next Grizzly's Daily Growl will be posted Saturday morning at Noon EST. Please check back then, and have a great weekend!   Grizzly

Grizzly's Daily Growl   Wed. 03/21/01  8:00 PM EST
The Greenspan sell-off continued Wednesday as the Bears are out in full force. The DJIA plunged 175 points right out of the gate and then mounted two failed rally attempts. A barrage of late-afternoon selling drove the DJIA down 234 points (2.4%) to close at 9,487, near the low of the day. So far, the DJIA has shed 514 points (5%) since Sir Alan spoke yesterday at 2:15 PM and it now stands, or rather sits, at a new two-year low. Who says lower interest rates are bullish?

The Nasdaq fared somewhat better today, though its two attempts at rally also failed miserably. The Nasdaq sank 27 points (1.5%) to close at 1,830, at a new 28-month low. Again, trading volume was mediocre, with little signs of capitulation (yet).

The DJIA easily sliced through support at last October's spike low of 9,654. As we said yesterday, if this level is broken then all hell may break loose, including the significant risk of an historic crash. If a crash does happen, it may not be as swift and compact as those of 1987/1929, as the markets are now bound by "trading curbs," which would halt trading for varying periods based on the severity of the drop. 

We believe that trading curbs will do little to stem the selling, and the argument can be made that curbs would actually exacerbate the sell-off. If traders know that trading will be halted at a certain point, then many will not want to be caught holding ANY positions when trading stops. So, they'll sell ahead of the curb level, helping driving the markets to that curb level. When the markets re-open, those who couldn't get out before the halt will flood the market with sell orders. 

Again, we must keep in mind that the technical condition of the markets remains at historically oversold levels and gloom and doom has begun to creep into mass psychology. Anytime CNN TV's Larry King hosts a panel on the market drop and when Time, Newsweek and U.S. News all sport cover stories about the Great Bear Market, the bulk of this leg of the decline may already be over. We shouldn't be surprised if at least a sharp "dead-cat bounce" surfaces very soon. 

Stay tuned for more intense drama tomorrow on Wall Street!   Grizzly

Grizzly's Daily Growl  Tues. 03/20/01  8:00 PM EST
Things pretty much went according to script today. As we said back on February 28th, “when Sir Alan of Greenspan speaks, the markets listen, or in this case, puke.” 

As we had anticipated, the markets had set themselves up perfectly for another big fall when Sir Alan failed to delivered what the markets were demanding, a 75 basis point rate cut. Fifty basis points just wasn’t enough to satisfy the desperate bulls. 

As we said yesterday, "the markets have rallied into the last several Federal Reserve meetings and rate cuts, only to sell off sharply shortly thereafter." Ditto today's performance.

The DJIA, which rallied 135 points Monday, poked its nose above 10,000 several times today before the 2:15 PM Greenspan announcement. A brief rally a few minutes after the annoucement gave way to massive selling, driving the DJIA down to close off 238 points (2.4%) at 9,720. The Nasdaq took it even harder, plunging 94 points (4.8%) to close at 1,857.

Perhaps most disheartening for the bulls, today's trading volume was about average, though the Nasdaq did trade about 1 billion shares in the last two hours. If they were looking for capitulation today, it has only just begun.

The Nasdaq is now at a new 28-month low. The DJIA is just 66 points above last October's spike low of 9,654. If this level breaks, then all hell may break loose, including the significant risk of a 1987/1929 style crash. 

Whether the markets crash or not at this juncture, one must keep in mind that the markets remain at extremely oversold levels and gloom and doom has begun to creep into market psychology. We shouldn't be surprised if a sharp "dead-cat bounce" surfaces very soon. 

The Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 futures are trading down a bit in early evening trading, so a reflex rally is in doubt for tomorrow, at least at the opening.

Stay tuned for more intense drama tomorrow on Wall Street!   Grizzly

Grizzly's Daily Growl  Mon. 03/19/01  8:00 PM EST
The markets bought some breathing room Monday in advance of tomorrow's much anticipated Federal Reserve Bank meeting. Short-covering and bargain-hunting following last week's sell-off helped push the markets higher. The DJIA made a brief run at 10,000 late in the day, but fell short to close at 9,959, up 135 points (1.3%).

The Nasdaq dipped to a new intra-day low of 1,868 at about noon EST before jumping on the rally bandwagon. The Nasdaq closed up 60 points (3.2%) to close at 1,951 after losing 7.7% last week.

Tomorrow is of course a critical day for bull and bears alike. As we've been discussing, the markets are demanding a 75 basis point rate cut from Sir Alan of Greenspan. The pressure is on Sir Alan like never before. 

The markets have rallied into the last several Federal Reserve meetings and rate cuts, only to sell off sharply shortly thereafter. Any disappointment, misstep or even a misinterpretation of Sir Alan's patented Greenspeak could spark a major sell-off, including the significant risk of a 1987/1929 style crash. Alternatively, if Sir Alan delivers a cut of 75 basis points or more, the markets may breath a huge sigh of relief and extend today's rally for at least a few more days.

Stay tuned for the intense drama that will unfold tomorrow on Wall Street.   Grizzly

Grizzly's Daily Growl  Fri. 03/16/01  8:00 PM EST
It was anything but "TGIF" today. Thursday's surprisingly quiet trading was but the proverbial calm before the storm.

The DJIA poked its nose into positive territory shortly after the open and then plunged 200 points in the following hour. Again, the DJIA couldn't hold above 10K for more than a few minutes. A mid-day rally was completely retraced and the DJIA went on to close near the low of the day at 9,823, down 208 points (2.1%). Today's drop capped the DJIA's worst weekly point loss in history, down 821 points, though this 7.7% loss is far from a record. 

The Nasdaq followed the DJIA most of the day, bouncing off 1,880 a couple of times to close down 50 points (2.6%) at 1,891. The Nasdaq has now fallen seven consecutive weeks, losing 882 points (32%) since February 1st.

If a significant rally is not mounted and sustained starting early next week, then the bottom may fall out of the markets, including the significant risk of an historic 1987/1929 style crash. This would be driven by a massive high-volume capitulation where all the towels are thrown in. The good news (for the bulls) would be that a tradeable, multi-week or multi-month counter-trend rally would be at hand. The bad news would be that at least one more leg of the Great Bear Market of 2000-2001 would follow that rally.

As we've discussed the past two days, the markets are demanding a 75 basis point rate cut from Sir Alan of Greenspan next Tuesday. The pressure is on Sir Alan like never before. Any disappointment, misstep or even a misinterpretation of his patented Greenspeak could spark that crash. 

For new visitors to our web site, here's our ongoing outlook: 

US STOCKS REMAIN ON FULL CRASH ALERT!
For speculators, any short-term strength may offer excellent entry points to the short side.

For aggressive investors, please consider one of the eighteen "Great Bear Funds" that are well positioned to profit from market losses. Please see our Great Bear Funds Page for more information.

For conservative investors, five percent in a money market fund is hard to beat, plus you get to sleep nights.
Please read our disclaimer.

Have a great weekend and get ready for the intense drama that will unfold next week on Wall Street.   Grizzly

Grizzly's Daily Growl  Thurs. 03/15/01  8:00 PM EST
Following Monday's and Wednesday's nasty sell-offs, Friday's upcoming "Triple Witching" cast an unusually calm spell on the markets Thursday. Both the Nasdaq and DJIA traded in relatively narrow ranges, at least by recent standards. 

Aided by the strong recovery overnight in the Nikkei 225, the DJIA spiked up 125 points in the first few minutes of trading, only to give it all back by 11:45 AM. From there the DJIA crawled up and down to close above 10K at 10,031, up 58 points.

The Nasdaq also spiked up 58 points at the open, but it was all downhill from there. Again, the 2,000 level offered little support. The Nasdaq closed at the low of the day (usually a bearish sign), down 31 points (1.6%) at 1941. Pearl Harbor anyone? The Nasdaq now finds itself in a very precarious position, just a few points above Monday's lows. A break thereof would probably lead to another large leg of the Great Bear Market of 2000-2001.

To repeat from yesterday, "the consensus on The Street now is that Sir Alan of Greenspan MUST deliver a 75 basis point rate cut next Tuesday, if not sooner. The pressure is on Sir Alan, and he had better not disappoint, or the bottom may fall out of the markets." The markets may not wait until Tuesday.   Grizzly

Grizzly's Daily Growl  Wed. 03/14/01  8:00 PM EST
As we said in this morning's Flash Update, the overnight futures were "lock-limit" down on the Nasdaq 100 and the S&P 500, and the DJIA futures were down by 381 points at its worst. The markets had nowhere to go but down at the open.

We noted yesterday that the Nasdaq technicals on Tuesday's  rally were very unimpressive, and that it looked like the short-term rally was over. We certainly didn't expect today's dramatic action, but we go back to our long-standing comment that "all surprises in a bear market are to the downside."

The DJIA plunged 340 points right out of the gate in a 
"mini-semi-panic," with 10,000 offering little support. A failed rally then briefly took it back up to 10,170. From there, the selling accelerated and the DJIA sank and bounced off the 9,900 level twice before closing down 317 points (3.1%) at 9,973. For the first time in recent memory, all 30 of the DJIA stocks were down on the day.

The Nasdaq held up much better than the DJIA, actually poking its head back into positive territory around 11:00 AM before sinking again to close down 42 points (2.1%) at 1,972.

As CNBC Chief Cheerleader Maria Bartiromo noted, things were pretty calm on the floor of the NYSE. Sure, they were worried, but there was no panic, and certainly no capitulation. Not too many towels were thrown in today. Also on CNBC the chief of the Vanguard Fund Group noted that their investor call volume was at normal levels, and again they were worried but not panicky. 

Trading volume today was about average of late. A capitulation day will sport perhaps 3 billion shares on the NYSE and 5 billion on the Nasdaq.

The "cause" of today's market drop was renewed concerns about Japan and its banking system. See CnnFn's story on Fitch's warnings. Indeed, keep an eye on the Nikkei 225 overnight as it is plunging yet again in early Thursday trading. The Nikkei is down another 400 points (3.3%) at 7:30 PM EST. 

The consensus on The Street now is that Sir Alan of Greenspan MUST deliver a 75 basis point rate cut next Tuesday, if not sooner. The pressure is on Sir Alan, and he had better not disappoint, or the bottom may fall out of the markets.

With the DJIA below 10,000 and the Nasdaq below 2,000, these so-called psychologically important levels may now provide solid overhead resistance.

The short-term Elliott Wave picture is unclear at the moment, but it appears that there is more to go on the downside before a solid bottom is reached. Thursday should be verrrry interesting, and verrrry volatile, as 'Triple Witching" works it black magic on the markets. Stay tuned for another wild day on Wall Street!     Grizzly

Flash Update  Wed. 03/14/01  7:30 AM EST
Wednesday is shaping up to be a major sell-off for Wall Street. The main European markets are down about 3% each and the overnight futures on the US markets are down sharply across the board at 7:30 AM. The Nasdaq 100 is "lock-limit down" 65 points, the S&P 500 is "lock limit down" 32 and the DJIA futures have plunged an incredible 381 points, putting the cash index well below 10,000. Stay tuned for a wild ride!    Grizzly

Grizzly's Daily Growl  Tues. 03/13/01  8:00 PM EST
The Nasdaq delivered the sharp snap-back "relief" rally Tuesday that pushed the Comp up 91 points (4.7%) to close at 2,014. No doubt that short-coverers and bargain hunters ruled the day. 

Yet today's Nasdaq technicals were very unimpressive for such a sharp rally. Advancing issues lead decliners by only 2,095 to 1,659. [On the NYSE, losers exceeded winners by 1,716 to 1,362.] New 52-week lows swamped new highs by a 263 to 35 margin. Volume was only about average at 2 billion shares.

Today's bounce appears to be just that, a bounce. The action today paints a classic Elliott three-wave correction.

There may be a bit more rally Wednesday morning to complete this small degree counter-trend correction, but then another five-wave drop should ensue. Alternatively, a larger upward correction may have started, in which case the Nasdaq should head net higher for at least several more days.

The DJIA was down 100 points at noon EST and then managed to claw its way back to breakeven by mid-afternoon. A strong last hour rally yanked the DJIA up to close the day 83 points (0.8%) to the good at 10,291. As with the Nasdaq, there may be a bit more buying Wednesday morning to complete this small rally before the next leg of the Great Bear takes hold.     Grizzly

Grizzly's Daily Growl  Mon. 03/12/01  8:00 PM EST
The Great Bear's birthday wingding we spoke of Friday was just a warm-up for Monday's massive meltdown.

As we said Friday, "On a short-term basis, the technical conditions of the markets are very oversold. But, they were also very oversold on the Friday before the Crash of '87." Today, the markets didn't come close to matching the fear, panic and blood in the streets of 1987's 22% crash, but there were hints of such as the selling accelerated dramatically into the close.

The DJIA plunged 436 points (4.1%), its fifth largest point loss, to close at 10,208. The Nasdaq pierced through the so-called psychologically important 2,000 level as if it were rice paper. The Nasdaq plunged 129 points (6.3%) to close at 1,923. The Nasdaq is now down 860 points (31%) since February 1st.

For those who were well positioned for today's decline, it was very profitable. Here's a sampling of how our Great Bear Funds fared today:

Some put-holders saw triple digit percentage gains today as well.

The mini-crash is continuing on the other side of the globe as the Nikkei 225 is down another 400 points (3.3%) in early Tuesday trading.

As for Tuesday, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures are trading a bit below fair value in Globex trading tonight, so the prospects for a snap-back rally, at least at the open, are in doubt. 

In Elliott Wave terms, it appears that five waves down from last week's highs are nearing completion for the Nasdaq, so a bit more selling Tuesday or possibly into Wednesday should be followed by a three-wave counter-trend rally. How far and for how long any such rally can carry is key. If a solid rally does not develop in the next couple of days, then truly, it will be "loooooookkkkk ooouuuuttttt beeeelllloooooowww!"    Grizzly

Grizzly's Daily Growl  Fri. 03/09/01  8:00 PM EST
The Great Bear Market of 2000-2001 celebrated its first birthday Friday, and it was one helluva wing-ding.

The Nasdaq hit its record intra-day high of 5132.52 and closing high of 5048.62 on March 10, 2000. From there, it's been all downhill. The Nasdaq capped the anniversary with a 116 point (5.35%) plunge to close the week at 2,052.78, its lowest level since Dec. 17, 1998.

So far in the 2000-2001 Great Bear Market, the Nasdaq has lost 3,090 points on an intra-day basis. By Bloomberg News' calculation, this 60% loss in one year makes this Great Bear Market the worst in Nasdaq's history.

The DJIA also got smashed at the party, plunging 214 points (2%) to close at 10,645.

So the big question is, what about Monday? Will the Great Bear be hung over, or has he just whet his appetite? Is this the end of the beginning, or just the beginning of the end? We sure don't know, but we firmly believe there is still much more to go on the downside, considering that the DJIA and most other averages and indices have not partied nearly as hardy to the downside as has the Nasdaq. Whether the markets can mount a solid relief rally now or later is the question. On a short-term basis, the technical condition of the markets are very oversold. But, they were also very oversold on the Friday before the Crash of '87. In any event, the markets will be very volatile next week.

Please take a moment to give us your thoughts on the Nasdaq. Please have a look at our latest monthly report, published last Monday. Have a great weekend!    Grizzly

Grizzly's Daily Growl  Thurs. 03/08/01  8:00 PM EST
We thought yesterday that the DJIA had run out of gas when it finally poked its head above 10,700. But a late-afternoon rally pushed the average up another 129 points Thursday to close at 10,858. The "Old Economy" stocks are now hot! The DJIA hasn't been able to hold above the 11,000 mark since last September, and it should turn back this rally, too.

The Nasdaq broke out of its recent 2,200-2,245 trading range to the downside as it couldn't shake off the Yahoo Blues nor piggy-back on the DJIA's rally. Yahoo has crashed 92% in the last 15 months, from 220 to today's close of 17 11/16. For the day, the Nasdaq sank 55 points (2.5%) to close at 2,168. The next few days will be key to the Nasdaq's prospects for the next few weeks.

Please take a moment to give us your thoughts on the Nasdaq. Cast your vote in our online poll and please have a look at our latest monthly report, published Monday morning.    Grizzly

Grizzly's Daily Growl  Wed. 03/07/01  8:00 PM EST
We said yesterday "there may be a few more squiggles in the [Nasdaq] chart to the upside Wednesday or even into Thursday." The Nasdaq delivered those squiggles Wednesday, but it could only muster a 19 point gain to close at 2,244. 

Over the last two days, the Nasdaq has been tracing out a clear sideways consolidation, stuck between 2,200 and 2,245. When markets break out of such a pattern, it is usually a very sharp move. It probably will break out to the upside, but we think it will be a last-gasp rally that will quickly run out of energy. Then, "looookkkkk ooooouuuuuttttt beeeeelooooowwww!"

The DJIA bumped into the 10,700 stone wall five times today before finally busting through to close the day up 138 points at 10,729. As with the Nasdaq, there may be a few more squiggles higher tomorrow, but we think the DJIA spent a great deal of energy to get through 10,700, and there's probably not much buying power left.

The Street is convinced that the bottom is in, there will be no recession, and now is a once-in-a-lifetime bargain hunting opportunity; all classic bear market rally psychology.

Please take a moment to give us your thoughts on the Nasdaq. Cast your vote in our online poll and please have a look at our latest monthly report, published Monday morning.    Grizzly

Grizzly's Daily Growl  Tues. 03/06/01  8:00 PM EST
We said yesterday that the markets had a bit more to go on the upside to complete the short-term counter-trend rally that began last Thursday. Like the Great Storm of 2001, we think this rally will fizzle out sooner than most expect, if it hasn't done so already.

The DJIA rallied 125 points right out of the gate Tuesday and bumped into very strong resistance at 10,700. The DJIA slipped  and slid 100 points over the rest of the session to close up 29 points at 10,591. The DJIA has been in a clearly defined trading range of 10,300 to 11,000 or so over the past six months. One thing is certain: trading ranges don't last forever. We think the bottom of the range will give way to the next leg of the Great Bear Market, any time now.

The Nasdaq mounted a respectable rally, closing up 61 points at 2,204. Again, there may be a few more squiggles in the chart to the upside Wednesday or even into Thursday, but then, "looookkkkk ooooouuuuuttttt beeeeelooooowwww!"

Please take a moment to give us your thoughts on the Nasdaq. Cast your vote in our new online poll. Please have a look at our latest monthly report, published Monday morning.    Grizzly

Grizzly's Daily Growl  Mon. 03/05/01  9:00 PM EST
The markets edged higher Monday in quiet trading. Wall Street traders were preoccupied with how they were going to get home tonight. 

The Nasdaq opened up about 20 points and then danced around that level the rest of the day to close up 25 points at 2,143. The DJIA drifted up most of the day and closed up 95 points at 10,563. Neither rally was convincing. It looks as if both the DJIA and the Nasdaq are finishing a very small counter-trend rally that began last Thursday afternoon. There may be a bit more to go on the upside, but then, "looookkkkk ooooouuuuuttttt beeeeelooooowwww!"

Please take a moment to give us your thoughts on the Nasdaq. Cast your vote in our new online poll and please have a look at our latest monthly report, published Monday morning.    Grizzly

Grizzly's Daily Growl  Fri. 03/02/01  8:00 PM EST
On the heels of Oracle's earnings warning late Thursday and the prospect of more non-committal gobble-d-gook from Sir Alan of Greenspan on Capital Hill, we were expecting wild volatility today. The markets did not disappoint, as the DJIA traded in a 275 point range during the day.

In the flip side of the last two days' action, sellers, not buyers, stormed in around 2:00 PM and drove the markets sharply off their highs. The DJIA plunged 115 points from its session highs to close the day up just 16 points at 10,466. CNNfn notes that today was the first advancing Friday of the year for the DJIA!

The Nasdaq made it into positive territory just briefly before being driven down to close near the session lows at 2,117. The Nasdaq lost 66 points (3%) on the day and 6.4% for the week. The Nasdaq has closed down in eight of the last ten sessions, and five straight weeks. The Comp is now down 57 percent from its all-time high just over a year ago and it stands at another new 27-month low.

If you think the Nasdaq has had a rough go of it lately, the 
Nikkei 225 tumbled another 420 points (3.3%) Friday to hit yet another 15-year low. Hong Kong, South Korea and most of the rest of Asia are going along for the ride.

Monday should be veerrrrry interesting! Please take a moment to give us your thoughts on the Nasdaq. Cast your vote in our new online poll and check back Monday morning for a full Grizzly's Growling Report.  Have a great weekend!   Grizzly

Grizzly's Daily Growl  Thurs. 03/01/01  8:00 PM EST
As we mentioned yesterday, "bear market rallies are usually sharp but short-lived." Thursday's rally may be a one-day wonder. After the market close, Oracle stunned The Street anal-ysts with an earnings warning. The March Nasdaq 100 futures are down about 38 points (44 points below cash) in early evening trading, so the markets are poised to give back all of today's gains right out of the gate on Friday.

The Nasdaq scored a 31 point gain Thursday for only its second winning session out of the last nine. Bargain hunters and bottom-fishers stormed in at about 2:00 pm EST and rescued the Nasdaq from an 80 point loss. The Comp closed the day at 2,071. Losers topped winners 2,230 to 1,558 on the Nasdaq as 2 billion shares changed hands.

The afternoon buying stampede couldn't lift the DJIA completely out of red. The DJIA was down over 200 points at mid-day (as it was Wednesday) before bouncing off the 10,300 mark and beginning a 150 points reflex rally to close the day down only 45 at 10,450. 

Wednesday, the Bank of Japan made a surprise cut in the key overnight money-market call rate to 0.15 percent from 0.25 percent. That's right, 15/100ths of one percent, barely above "free money." The result?: the Nikkei 225 has plunged yet again in early Friday trading, to below 12,500. 

Stay tuned for more wild volatility Friday. Please take a moment to give us your thoughts on the Nasdaq. Cast your vote in our new online poll.    Grizzly