Grizzly's Daily Growl Archives

"Grizzly's Daily Growl" Archives - June 2001
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Grizzly's Daily Growl Fri. 06/29/01 9:00 PM EDT
It was a bit of a "Freaky Friday" today as a computer glitch seriously disrupted trading on the Nasdaq at 2:30 PM EDT. The problems were resolved and the Nasdaq stayed open from 4:00-5:00, though not many traders waited around. The Nasdaq rose 35 points (1.6%) to 2,161.

The DJIA bounced around just above and below the flat line until 3:00 PM when a sharp 100 point sell-off took the DJIA out of the green to close down 64 points (0.6%) at 10,502.

Again as we've been saying for the past two weeks, "the Nasdaq reserves the right to mount one more large leg of counter-trend rally. We think this is a low probability, but it remains a viable scenario."

We added yesterday that "the odds of [one more large leg of counter-trend rally] have undoubtedly increased with today's rally, but we think the jury is still out." Today's rally in the Nasdaq adds a bit more weight to the bullish case, though the last-hour slide in the DJIA does not exactly bode well for Monday's opening.

Have a great weekend and tune in Monday morning for a new Grizzly's Growling Report. Please take a moment to give us your thoughts on where you think the Nasdaq is headed. Cast your vote in our new online poll, just up and to the left of this column. Grizzly

Grizzly's Daily Growl Thurs. 06/28/01 9:00 PM EDT
What the markets didn't like very much yesterday, they loved this morning. Sir Alan of Greenspan and The Fed delivered the sixth interest rate cut in six months yesterday, and the markets danced around without conviction. Today, they soared at the opening, but there was little follow-through. At Noon EDT, the Nasdaq was up 75 points and the DJIA was up 210. From there, the markets drifted lower. The Nasdaq closed up 51 points (2.4%) at 2,125 and the DJIA closed up 131 points (1.2%).

We said yesterday: " A convincing rally from here will indicate the Nasdaq is exercising its option to mount one more large leg of counter-trend rally before the Great Bear returns to the table in earnest." Despite the fact that the Nasdaq has now exceeded our short-term resistance area of 2,075, the lack of follow-through to today's early rally has us unconvinced that a major move is underway, at least not yet.

As we've been saying for the past two weeks, "the Nasdaq reserves the right to mount one more large leg of rally. We think this is a low probability, but it remains a viable scenario." The odds of such a move have undoubtedly increased with today's rally, but we think the jury is still out. We'll be on our toes as the Elliott Wave patterns play out from here.

Please take a moment to give us your thoughts on where you think the Nasdaq is headed. Cast your vote in our new online poll, just up and to the left of this column. Grizzly

Grizzly's Daily Growl Wed. 06/27/01 9:00 PM EDT
Sir Alan of Greenspan and The Fed delivered the sixth interest rate cut in six months and the markets did a Texas two-step. Following the Fed's 2:15 PM EDT announcement, the markets quickly sank and then quickly rebounded. The Nasdaq held on to most of the gain to close up 10 points (0.5%) at 2,075. The DJIA gave back much of the secondary rally to close down 38 points (0.4%) at 10,435, its fourth consecutive losing session.

Conventional "wisdom," always to be taken with a large shaker of salt, of course has it that lower interest rates always lead to higher stock prices. So after six interest rate cuts since January 3rd, where do the markets stand? The Nasdaq is down 15% and the DJIA down 5% since then.

The Federal Funds rate now stands at 3.75 percent, its lowest level since April 1994. As we’ve been discussing for the past few months in Grizzly's Growlings Reports, lower interest rates are not the cure for what ails the economy. Near zero interest rates certainly haven’t helped the Japanese market recover from its burst bubble of ten years ago! (The Nikkei 225 currently trades just a few percentage points above levels not seen since 1986!)

The Nasdaq in now at a critical juncture, standing right at our standing target for upside resistance of 2,075. This area (+/- 10 points) has repelled advances in the Nasdaq over the last week and must hold if our outlook for a drop back to 1,900 can remain on target. A convincing rally from here will indicate the Nasdaq is exercising its option to mount one more large leg of counter-trend rally before the Great Bear returns to the table in earnest. We'll be on our toes over the next few days as the short-term Elliott Wave patterns play out.

Please take a moment to give us your thoughts on where you think the Nasdaq is headed. Cast your vote in our new online poll, just up and to the left of this column. Grizzly

Grizzly's Daily Growl Tues. 06/26/01 9:00 PM EDT
Today's SSDDDC (Same Story, Different Day, Different Company) winner Merrill Lynch set the tone for today's trading as it warned that this quarter's earnings would be nearly cut in half from last year's level. The Street anal-ysts missed the mark by a mile, as the consensus was for "only" a 20% decline in earnings. MER tanked 10% in today's trading.

SSDDDC runner-up Palm announced after the close that its quarterly revenues were cut more than in half compared to last year, at $165 million. "Earnings" came in at a loss of $153 million. Hmmm, lets see, revenue of $165 million generating a loss of $153 million... No wonder the stock is down 92% over the last seven months.

DJIA headed south from the get-go today and by noon it was down 110 points. The optimists over tomorrow's expected Fed interest rate cut stepped in and brought the DJIA out of red by 2:00 PM. But another round of selling then dropped the DJIA 60 points off the high of the day to close at 10,472, down 32 points (0.3%).

The Nasdaq fared better, as The Street focused on MER and the blue chips. The Nasdaq bounced off 2,020 and ended the day up 14 points (0.7%) at 2,065.

So tomorrow, that master of monetary mumbo-jumbo Sir Alan of Greenspan and the Fed will announce their sixth interest rate cut in the last six months. Street analy-sts are sweating bullets in anticipation of either a 25 or 50 basis point reduction in the Federal Funds rate. We think they will be sorely disappointed with a 25 b.p. cut. They may like a 50 b.p. cut for a few minutes or hours, but as they have done in reaction to four of the past five cuts, we think the markets will quickly reverse back to the downside.

The short-term Elliott Wave patterns are strongly suggesting that the markets are headed lower over the next week or so. Things appear to be on track toward our target of 1,900 on the Nasdaq for this leg of the downturn.

Please take a moment to give us your thoughts on where you think the Nasdaq is headed. Cast your vote in our new online poll, just up and to the left of this column. Grizzly

Grizzly's Daily Growl Mon. 06/25/01 9:00 PM EDT
It's time again for The Street to in pay homage to that master of monetary mumbo-jumbo, Sir Alan of Greenspan. Street analy-sts are sweating bullets in anticipation of either a 25 or 50 basis point reduction in the Federal Funds Rate. So which will it be? Who cares! A week from now it won't make a difference. As we've discussed recently, lower interest rates are not the cure for what ails this economy. We'll discuss this topic further in next Monday's full Grizzly's Growlings Report.

The DJIA sank to a nine-week low today, sliding 100 points (0.9%) to 10,504. The Street is finally recognizing that the recession is spreading to the blue chips. Over on the Nasdaq, another one of those late-day rallies yanked it out of the red to close up 16 points (0.8%) at 2.051.

Please take a moment to give us your thoughts on where you think the Nasdaq is headed. Cast your vote in our online poll, just up and to the left of this column. Poll closes tonight, with a new poll opening tomorrow. Grizzly

Grizzly's Daily Growl Fri. 06/22/01 9:00 PM EDT
Since last week, we've been looking for the 2,075 area to offer solid resistance to the bounce. As it did yesterday, the Nasdaq bumped its head into 2,075 at 10:45 AM EDT today and then shed 40 points to close near the low of the day. The Nasdaq gave back nearly all of Thursday's gain to close at 2.035, down points (1.1%). The DJIA was hit just as hard, tumbling 111 points (1.1%) to 10,605.

As we said yesterday, "If the 2,075 area can shut down the next rally attempt, we believe the Nasdaq is headed for our standing short-term target of 1,900. However, as we've been saying for the last week, the Nasdaq reserves the right to mount one more large leg of rally. We think this is a low probability, but it remains a viable scenario."

Sir Alan of Greenspan and The Fed are expected to cut interest rates yet again next Wednesday, but worries about the worsening economy have superceded any optimism that would otherwise be generated by that event.

Another tie for today's SSDDDC (Same Story, Different Day, Different Company) winner. Merck, the drug giant. It wasn't really a huge disappointment compared to the SSDDDC disasters over the last two weeks or so, only a handful of cents below forecasts. But nevertheless, it was the first such earnings disappointment for one of the industrial giants. It won't be the last.

The Tech Wreck du Jour was Symantech, which said its first quarter revenue would not meet expectations. The stock got clobber, plunging 22 points (36%) to $39 and change. Once more, as JDS UniPhase's president said last week, "the business downturn has been rapid, steep and unprecedented..." We'll just add "it ain't over yet."

Have a great first weekend of summer! Please take a moment to give us your thoughts on where you think the Nasdaq is headed. Cast your vote in our online poll, just up and to the left of this column. Poll closes next Monday. Grizzly

Grizzly's Daily Growl Thurs. 06/21/01 9:00 PM EDT
The markets have been oversold and we've been looking for a bounce. We got it, though a few days later than expected. The markets extended Wednesday's late rally with a solid gain today. Since last week, we've been looking for the 2,075 area to offer solid resistance to the bounce. The Nasdaq rallied to 2,077 at 3:00 PM EDT and then quickly reversed into the close. The Nasdaq gained a net 28 points (1.3%) to 2,059 and the DJIA advanced 68 points (0.6%) to 10,715. Sir Alan of Greenspan and The Fed are expected to cut interest rates yet again next Wednesday, and perhaps we're seeing a bit of a run-up ahead of that event.

If the 2,075 area can shut down the next rally attempt, we believe the Nasdaq is headed for our standing short-term target of 1,900. However, as we've been saying for the last week, " the Nasdaq reserves the right to mount one more large leg of rally. We think this is a low probability, but it remains a viable scenario." If the Nasdaq continues the advance much beyond tomorrow, then the odds of that one more large leg higher will increase. We'll just have to stay on our toes as the market action plays out over the next few days.

Today's SSDDDC (Same Story, Different Day, Different Company) winner is microprocessor maker Transmeta Corp., which said it expects 2nd quarter revenue to come in 45 percent below 1st quarter levels. The stock got cut more than in half today, and it's now down 88% from last October's high. As JDS UniPhase's president said last week, "the business downturn has been rapid, steep and unprecedented..." We'll just add "it ain't over yet."

Please take a moment to give us your thoughts on where you think the Nasdaq is headed. Cast your vote in our online poll, just up and to the left of this column. Poll closes next Monday. Grizzly

Grizzly's Daily Growl Wed. 06/20/01 9:00 PM EDT
We finally got some of the bounce we're been looking for in the Nasdaq today, though it was largely confined to the last two hours of trading. The late rally pulled the Nasdaq out of the red and up 39 points (1.9%) to 2,031. The DJIA advanced 51 points (0.5%) to 10,647.

As mentioned, the Nasdaq had lost 272 points (12%) over the prior eight trading days, and the technical conditions have been very oversold. Today's action helped relieve some of the oversold indicators.

The short-term Elliott Wave patterns on the Nasdaq are inconclusive at the moment. Beyond the next few days though, we're expecting one more small down leg to the 1,900 area before a short-term bottom is reached. The sellers will need to take a break before the next major leg of this decline can continue. Our outlook from last Friday remains: " 2,075 or so should provide solid resistance to any bounce. We've been looking for the sell-off to carry to at least 1,900 and that remains a solid target."

The question at this point is, is the Great Bear Market of 2000-200[?] back in full force, or is the current drop just a correction of the large bounce from the March lows? The Elliott Wave patterns clearly indicate it would take a drop back below 1,605 to confirm the resumption of the next major leg down. A solid break of 1,825 should accelerate the selling toward 1,605. Until then, the Nasdaq reserves the right to mount one more large leg of rally. We think this is a low probability, but it remains a viable scenario.

Please take a moment to give us your thoughts on where you think the Nasdaq is headed. Cast your vote in our online poll, just up and to the left of this column. Poll closes next Monday. Grizzly

Grizzly's Daily Growl Tues. 06/19/01 9:00 PM EDT
Buoyed by Monday's pseudo-euphoric news that Oracle Corp "beat the street" (by a grand total of a solitary penny a share), the markets stormed higher at today's opening. By 9:45 AM EDT the Nasdaq had soared 67 points and the DJIA surged 95 points. But that was "all she wrote" for the rally, as it was all downhill from there.

The Nasdaq "bearly" managed to end its seven session losing streak, with a puny 4 point gain to 1,993. The DJIA sank 49 points (0.5%) to 10,597. The seven day losing streak was the Nasdaq's longest since September, 1994.

The fact that the Nasdaq has been unable to rally after losing 272 points (12%) over the last eight trading days must be very worrisome to the Bulls. Technically, the markets have been strongly oversold during over the past week, yet each new rally attempt is met with massive selling.

The short-term Elliott Wave patterns are suggesting one more brief drop tomorrow before a couple of days of rally. The sellers will need to take a break, soon, before the next leg of this decline can continue. Our outlook from last Friday remains: " 2,075 or so should provide solid resistance to the bounce. We've been looking for the sell-off to carry to at least 1,900 and that remains a solid target."

There were two terrible entrants for today's "SSDDDC" (Same Story, Different Day, Different Company): Telllabs and Teradyne. Nominee #1, is telecom stalwart Tellabs, which expects to report second quarter sales 36% below anal-ysts' expectations. The company may break even for the quarter, compared to anal-ysts' forecasts for a 29 cents per share profit.

Nominee #2 is Teradyne, the world's top maker of semiconductor testing equipment, which said it expects to sales to be in the range of $350-375 million, down from previous "guidance" of $425-450 million. The company will run a 5 and 10 cents per share loss, compared to anal-ysts' consensus estimates of a penny per share profit.

As JDS UniPhase's president said last week, "the business downturn has been rapid, steep and unprecedented..." We'll just add "it ain't over yet."

Please take a moment to give us your thoughts on where you think the Nasdaq is headed. Cast your vote in our new online poll, just up and to the left of this column. Grizzly

Grizzly's Daily Growl Mon. 06/18/01 9:00 PM EDT
Following six days of steady decline, we've been looking for a bit of a bounce. The DJIA managed a very choppy 22 point (0.2%) gain, 64 points off the high of the day, at 10,645.

Despite its strongly oversold condition, the Nasdaq extended it losing streak to seven consecutive days. The Nasdaq sank steadily and closed at the low of the day, down 40 points (2.0%), at 1,989. The allegedly psychologically important 2,000 level offered little support.

The Nasdaq has now lost 276 points (12%) in this most recent streak. The Nasdaq has not suffered seven consecutive in at least the past two years. We're still researching it, but it may be an all-time record. [The Nasdaq did drop 12 out of 14 days last October, but never seven days in a row.]

Chances are fairly good that the losing streak will end tomorrow. The overnight futures are trading sharply above fair value, buoyed by the news that Oracle Corp. "beat The Street" (by a whopping solitary penny a share) for its fiscal fourth quarter. The markets may heave a huge sigh of relief and mount a couple of days of rally from here. As we said Friday, " 2,075 or so should provide solid resistance to the bounce. We've been looking for the sell-off to carry to at least 1,900 and that remains a solid target."

Please take a moment to give us your thoughts on where you think the Nasdaq is headed. Cast your vote in our new online poll, just up and to the left of this column. Grizzly

Grizzly's Daily Growl Fri. 06/15/01 9:00 PM EDT
Things recovered a bit from " ugly" yesterday to just " nasty" on The Street as today's "SSDDDC" (Same Story, Different Day, Different Company) Nortel dropped a nuclear-tipped bombshell. NT said it is expecting to report a staggering $19.2 billion loss for the current quarter. That's no typo, that's billion with a B. Sales are expected to be down a shattering 42% from last year, 11% below anal-ysts' latest forecasts. As JDS Uniphase's president said yesterday, "The business downturn has been rapid, steep and unprecedented..."

The markets tanked at the open and by 10:30 AM EDT the Nasdaq had breached the 2,000 level. Bargain-hunters came in but the rally was feeble. The Nasdaq capped its worst week of the year, down 8.4%, with a 16 point (0.8%) drop to close at 2,028. The DJIA lost 66 points (0.6%) at 10,624.

Yesterday, we said the markets were oversold and a bounce was due. The bounce off of today's morning lows should continue early next week, though it will be choppy and unconvincing. 2,075 or so should provide solid resistance to the bounce. We've been looking for the sell-off to carry to at least 1,900 and that remains a solid target.

Please take a moment to give us your thoughts on where you think the Nasdaq is headed. Cast your vote in our new online poll, just up and to the left of this column. Have a great weekend! Grizzly

Grizzly's Daily Growl Thurs. 06/14/01 9:00 PM EDT
Things got a bit ugly on The Street today on continued concerns over the state of the economy and corporate earnings. For the second day in a row, all of the top 25 most active issues on the Nasdaq were in the red. Moreover, there were only seven advancers out of the top 100 most active issues across all the exchanges.

The Nasdaq closed near the low of the day, down another 78 points (3.7%) at 2,044, its lowest level in seven weeks. The Nasdaq has now dropped 10% over the last five trading days. The DJIA tanked 181 points (1.7%), its largest drop in nine weeks, to 10.690.

Today's "SSDDDC" (Same Story, Different Day, Different Company) casualty was JDS Uniphase, which now expects to report a loss of 6 to 8 cents a share, compared to anal-ysts estimates of a 5 cent profit. How bad are things becoming? JDSU's president said today "The business downturn has been rapid, steep and unprecedented..."

Today's break of 2,105 Nasdaq should confirm our outlook of the past two weeks for further selling towards the 1,900 area. Short-term, the markets are oversold and a few days of bounce are likely before the decline resumes.

The question at this point is, is the Great Bear Market of 2000-200[?] back in full force, or is the current drop just a correction of the large bounce from the March lows? The Elliott Wave patterns clearly indicate it would take a drop back below 1,605 to confirm the resumption of the next major leg down. Until then, the Nasdaq reserves the right to mount one more large leg of rally. We think this is a low probability, but it remains a viable scenario.

Please take a moment to give us your thoughts on where you think the Nasdaq is headed. Cast your vote in our new online poll, just up and to the left of this column. Grizzly

Grizzly's Daily Growl Wed. 06/13/01 9:00 PM EDT
Yesterday we said " There may be a bit more of a bounce in the next day or so, or the larger decline may resume pronto." The markets did bounce a bit higher Wednesday morning, but the downtrend then resumed. The Nasdaq closed at the low of the day, down 48 points (2.2%), at 2,122. The DJIA held in the green until 2:00 PM EDT and then sank to close down 77 points (0.7%) at 10,871.

Tuesday's Nasdaq low of 2,105, just 17 points away, is now critical support. A break thereof should confirm that the decline to 1,900 we've been looking for is in full force. If 2,105 holds, then we'll likely see a few days of choppiness before the decline resumes. We'll have to stay on our toes and see how the patterns play out.

Former shining star Lucent had its debt ratings cut to "junk" today by Standard & Poors. Lucent spin-off Avaya announced it will cut some 3,000 jobs. We expect to see many more such downgrades and layoffs in the weeks and months to come as the economic contraction continues.

Make no mistake about it, we are firmly maintaining our stance that the April-May rally is an admittedly large counter-trend bounce within the framework of the ongoing Great Bear Market of 2000–200[?]. Please see this month's Grizzly's Growlings Report for discussion of the economy and the bigger picture Elliott Wave outlook.

Please take a moment to give us your thoughts on where you think the Nasdaq is headed. Cast your vote in our new online poll, just up and to the left of this column. Grizzly

Grizzly's Daily Growl Tues. 06/12/01 9:00 PM EDT
The markets opened sharply lower on the heels of today's "SSDDDC" (Same Story, Different Day, Different Company) award winner, Nokia. At 10:30 AM, the Nasdaq was down 65 points and the DJIA lost 130 points. The afternoon saw a solid bounce that brought the Nasdaq back to just about breakeven and the DJIA into the green. The Nasdaq closed off less than a point at 2,170 and the DJIA closed up 26 points at 10,948.

From last Friday's high at 2,263, the Nasdaq fell 160 points (7%) into this morning's low. In Elliott Wave terms, this decline has formed in a clear 5 wave pattern, indicating that the one-larger trend is down. Today's late rally corrected some of this decline, but the pattern of the bounce is inconclusive so far. There may be a bit more of a bounce in the next day or so, or the larger decline may resume pronto. We'll have to stay on our toes and see how the patterns play out. Once this bounce concludes, we're still looking for a drop to the 1,900 area.

Please take a moment to give us your thoughts on where you think the Nasdaq is headed. Cast your vote in our new online poll, just up and to the left of this column. Grizzly

Grizzly's Daily Growl Mon. 06/11/01 9:00 PM EDT
Friday's sell-off continued today, with the Nasdaq dropping another 44 points (2.0%) to 2,171. As we said Friday, "The Nasdaq appears to be near a critical juncture. It has bounced off the 2,200 area three times over the past three days. A break below that level should usher in a drop to around 1,900." 2,200 offered little support today, likely clearing the way for a drop to the 1,900 area.

The DJIA, which was down over 100 points at 11:30 AM EDT, regained about half that loss in the afternoon to close down 55 points (0.5%) at 10,922.

Today's "SSDDDC" (Same Story, Different Day, Different Company) was Varian Associates. The chip equipment maker announced that its fiscal third-quarter revenue would be 30-to-35 percent below last year's levels. As we said Friday, when revenues coming in the front door are dropping dramatically, you know the economic slowdown is accelerating, not ending.

The picture isn't any brighter over in Japan. GDP fell 0.2% in the first quarter of 2001, continuing the economic decline that began over ten years ago. See http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/nm/20010611/bs/economy_japan_dc_5.html for complete details.

Make no mistake about it, we are firmly maintaining our stance that the recent rally is an admittedly large counter-trend bounce within the framework of the ongoing Great Bear Market of 2000–200[?]. Please see this month's Grizzly's Growlings Report for discussion of the economy and the bigger picture Elliott Wave outlook.

Please take a moment to give us your thoughts on where you think the Nasdaq is headed. Cast your vote in our new online poll, just up and to the left of this column. Grizzly

Grizzly's Daily Growl Fri. 06/08/01 9:00 PM EDT
It wasn't Friday the 13th, but today was very strange nonetheless. A software glitch forced the NYSE to close for about 80 minutes this morning, putting a damper on activity all day. The Nasdaq dropped 49 points (2.2%), giving back all of yesterday's advance, to close at 2,215. The DJIA sank 114 points (1.0%) at 10,977. 11,000 offered no support whatsoever.

Today's "SSDDDC" (Same Story, Different Day, Different Company) was Juniper Networks, which said its quarterly earnings would be about two-thirds less than previously estimated, and its revenues would be about one-third less than forecast.

As Juniper shows, it's not just bottom line earnings that are keeping a lid on any rally attempt for the high techs, it's the top-line revenue numbers that are plunging. (The Nasdaq has gone a net nowhere since April 19th.) Earnings are very subjective, an accounting figment designed primarily to minimize income tax liabilities. But revenue is fairly fudge-proof, and when revenues coming in the front door are declining 15, 20, 30 percent from recent forecasts, you know the economic slowdown is accelerating, not ending.

The Nasdaq appears to be near a critical juncture. It has bounced off the 2,200 area three times over the past three days. A break below that level should usher in a drop to around 1,900.

Have a great weekend! Please take a moment to give us your thoughts on where you think the Nasdaq is headed. Cast your vote in our new online poll, just up and to the left of this column. Grizzly

Grizzly's Daily Growl Thurs. 06/07/01 9:00 PM EDT
The rally in the Nasdaq resumed today, following Wednesday's 16 point loss, with a solid 46 point (2.0%) advance to 2,264. The DJIA has been lagging lately, dropping 106 points Wednesday and bounce only 20 points today to 11,091.

We had been looking for the Nasdaq to register at least a short-term peak by now, so the rally is likely extending beyond our expectations. The short-term Elliott Wave patterns have clouded, and the door is open for several more days of rally. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures are up strongly in early overnight trading, so a sharply higher opening tomorrow looks likely.

Please take a moment to give us your thoughts on where you think the Nasdaq is headed. Cast your vote in our new online poll, just up and to the left of this column. Grizzly

Grizzly's Daily Growl Wed. 06/06/01 9:00 PM EDT
Since Monday, we've been looking for a "day or two of rally, followed by a sharp drop. " On Tuesday the DJIA surged 114 and the Nasdaq gained 78 points. Today, the DJIA sank steadily, closing near the low of the day at 11,070, down 106 points (0.9%). The Nasdaq bounced around and closed off 16 points (0.7%) at 2,218.

The 2,075-2,100 area is now key support for the Nasdaq. A break below this level would confirm the next down leg is underway, probably to the 1,900 area. A bounce off 2,075 would signify that the rally is still alive, with an upside target around 2,500. We'll be on our toes over the next few days as the short-term patterns play out.

Please take a moment to give us your thoughts on where you think the Nasdaq is headed. Cast your vote in our new online poll, just up and to the left of this column. Grizzly

Grizzly's Daily Growl Tues. 06/05/01 9:00 PM EDT
Yesterday we stated "another day or two of rally is likely for the Nasdaq, followed by a sharp drop. This decline should be wave 5 down, completing the drop from last week's 2,330 peak. The 1,900 area (+/-30 points) remains a solid target for this decline."

The Nasdaq surged 78 points (3.6%) today to close at 2,244. The DJIA scored a 114 point (1.0%) gain at 11,176. Volume surged higher following Monday's slowest trading day of the year (on the Nasdaq).

Make no mistake about it, we are firmly maintaining our stance that the recent rally is an admittedly large counter-trend bounce within the framework of the ongoing Great Bear Market of 2000 – 200[?]. Please see this month's Grizzly's Growlings Report for discussion of the economy and the bigger picture Elliott Wave outlook.

Please take a moment to give us your thoughts on where you think the Nasdaq is headed. Cast your vote in our new online poll, just up and to the left of this column. Grizzly

Grizzly's Daily Growl Mon. 06/04/01 9:00 PM EDT
Things were pretty quiet on The Street Monday. The Nasdaq edged up 6 points to 2,156 on the lightest trading volume of the year. The DJIA pushed ahead 71 points (0.6%) to close at 11,062.

Today's Elliott Wave read suggests another day or two of rally is likely for the Nasdaq, followed by a sharp drop. This decline should be wave 5 down, completing the drop from last week's 2,330 peak. The 1,900 area (+/-30 points) remains a solid target for this decline.

Make no mistake about it, we are firmly maintaining our stance that the recent rally is an admittedly large counter-trend bounce within the framework of the ongoing Great Bear Market of 2000 – 200[?]. Please see this month's Grizzly's Growlings Report for discussion of the economy and the bigger picture Elliott Wave outlook.

Please take a moment to give us your thoughts on where you think the Nasdaq is headed. Cast your vote in our new online poll, just up and to the left of this column. Grizzly

Grizzly's Daily Growl Fri. 06/01/01 9:00 PM EDT
The markets extended yesterday's faded rally. The Nasdaq's ten percent drop from last week's 2,330 peak has brought in enough bargain-hunters and bottom-fishers to push it up 39 points (1.8%) to 2,149. The DJIA scored a 78 point (0.7%) advance to close the week at 10,990.

The table should now be set for The Great Bear Market of 2000-200[?] to return for at least a snack. Our outlook from yesterday remains: "The Elliott Wave patterns strongly suggesting that the one-larger trend remains down, at least for the next week or so. This decline should be a small wave 5 down, completing the drop from last week's 2,330 peak. The 1,900 area (+/-30 points) remains a solid target for this decline."

Have a great weekend and check back Monday morning for a full Grizzly's Growlings Report. Please take a moment to give us your thoughts on where you think the Nasdaq is headed. Cast your vote in our new online poll, just up and to the left of this column. Grizzly

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