Grizzly's Daily Growl  Tues. 07/31/01  9:00 PM EDT
The DJIA led the way up today, surging nearly 200 points at its best level around 2:00 PM EDT. From there the DJIA slipped and closed up 121 points (1.1%) at 10,523. The afternoon selling hit the Nasdaq much harder, as it barely held on to its early gains. The Nasdaq closed up only 9 points (0.5%) at 2,027.

Our analysis over the last week has been that a choppy counter-trend rally has been underway since last Tuesday and that the larger trend remains to the downside. If so, the rally probably peaked at today's intraday highs. We can raise the key support level on the Nasdaq to 1,997, last Thursday morning's high. A break thereof should usher in a quick drop to the 1,800 area (+/- 15 points), with the potential for much lower levels from there. 

Alternatively, if the rally is able to extend above the July 2nd high of 2,165, the door would be opened to further advances toward the 2,600-2,700 area. We think this remains a low probability scenario. But make no mistake about it, we firmly believe that Nasdaq 5,000 will remain unapproachable for many years to come as the Great Bear Market of 2000-200[?] runs its course."

Please take a moment to give us your thoughts on where you think the Nasdaq is headed. Cast your vote in our new online poll, just up and to the left of this column.    Grizzly

Grizzly's Daily Growl  Mon. 07/30/01  9:00 PM EDT
The markets drifted narrowly lower Monday in very quiet trading. The DJIA slipped 15 points to 10,402 and the Nasdaq slid 11 points to 2,018.

As we said Friday, in Elliott Wave terms the recent choppiness is an extension of the bounce from last  Tuesday afternoon's lows. The pattern of the bounce (particularly in the DJIA) continues to take an overlapping, corrective form, strongly suggesting that the larger trend remains to the downside. 

We can raise the key support level on the Nasdaq to 1,997, last Thursday morning's high. A break of this level should usher in a quick drop to the 1,800 area (+/- 15 points), with the potential for much lower levels from there. Alternatively, if the rally (from last Tuesday afternoon) is able to extend above the July 2nd high of 2,165, the door would be opened to further advances toward the 2,600-2,700 area. We think this remains a low probability scenarios. But make no mistake about it, we firmly believe that Nasdaq 5,000 will remain unapproachable for many years to come as the Great Bear Market of 2000-200[?] runs its course."

Meanwhile over in Japan, the Nikkei 225 fell another 219 points (1.8%) to 11,579, its lowest close since January 7, 1985. Stalwart Sony has plunged 18% over the last two trading days.

Please take a moment to give us your thoughts on where you think the Nasdaq is headed. Cast your vote in our new online poll, just up and to the left of this column.    Grizzly

Grizzly's Daily Growl  Fri. 07/27/01  9:00 PM EDT
The markets gyrated around today in trend-less trading. The DJIA traded slightly lower all day and closed near the middle of its range, off 39 points (0.4%) at 10,417. The Nasdaq bounced around mostly in positive territory and closed near the middle of its range at 2,029, up 6 points. 

In Elliott Wave terms, today's choppiness is an extension of the bounce from Tuesday afternoon's lows. The pattern of the bounce continues to take a corrective form, strongly suggesting that the larger trend remains to the downside.

As we discussed yesterday, the key Nasdaq 1,935 support area (the July 11th low) has held (so far). A break of this level should usher in a quick drop to the 1,800 area (+/- 15 points), with the potential for much lower levels from there. Alternatively, if the rally (from Tuesday afternoon) is able to extend above the July 2nd high of 2,165, the door would be opened to further advances toward the 2,600-2,700 area. We think this remains a low probability scenarios. But make no mistake about it, we firmly believe that Nasdaq 5,000 will remain unapproachable for many years to come as the Great Bear Market of 2000-200[?] runs its course."

Today the gub'ment reported that the U.S. economy grew by only 0.7% in the second quarter, the slowest rate in more than eight years. The Street anal-ysts are "wishing and hoping" that the worst has passed and the bottom is in. We don't buy it for a second.

Please take a moment to give us your thoughts on where you think the Nasdaq is headed. Cast your vote in our new online poll, just up and to the left of this column. Poll closes tonight at midnight    Grizzly

Grizzly's Daily Growl  Thurs. 07/26/01  9:00 PM EDT
The markets sold off right out of the gate today and by noon the DJIA was down 120 points and the Nasdaq was off 20 points. From there, the markets charged ahead and closed near the highs of the day, The DJIA gained 50 points (0.5%) to 10,456 and the Nasdaq advanced 39 points (1.9%) to 2,023. 

Today's SSDDDC (Same Story Different Day Different Company) is actually a repeat " winner." JDS UniPhase posted a staggering and unprecedented $50.6 billion loss (that's billion with a "b") for its fiscal year just ended. Adding to its embarrassment, trading in JDSU shares was halted for nearly an hour today when a hacker broke into the company's computer system and stole a copy of its earnings announcement!

Furthermore, JDSU said it "does not see any positive signs of a reversal in the downward trend of the industry and expects first quarter revenue to be below earlier guidance." The company also said it would cut another 7,000 jobs in the current quarter. The formerly high-flying JDSU traded at $150 at last year's bubble peak and is now in the $8.00 a share area.

The Nasdaq is now at a critical juncture. The key 1,935 support area (the July 11th low) has held (so far). A break of this level would usher in a quick drop to the 1,800 area (+/- 15 points), with the potential for much lower levels from there. Alternatively, if today's rally is able to extend above the July 2nd high of 2,165, the door would be opened to further advances toward the 2,600-2,700 area. But make no mistake about it, we firmly believe that Nasdaq 5,000 will remain unapproachable for many years to come as the Great Bear Market of 2000-200[?] runs its course. 

Please take a moment to give us your thoughts on where you think the Nasdaq is headed. Cast your vote in our new online poll, just up and to the left of this column. Poll closes Friday at midnight    Grizzly

Grizzly's Daily Growl  Wed. 07/25/01  9:00 PM EDT
The markets bounced today as expected, essentially recouping all of Tuesday's losses. The DJIA surged 165 points (1.6%) to 10,406 and the Nasdaq rose 25 points (1.3%) to 1,984.

Short-term, the Elliott Wave pattern of the bounce from late Tuesday is a clear three-wave corrective move, indicating the larger trend is still down. If our outlook is correct, the markets should head south tomorrow morning. We're still looking for a break of the July 11th low of 1,935 on the Nasdaq to usher in a quick drop to the 1,800 area (+/- 15 points), with the potential for much lower levels from there. A break of the April 4th low of 1,620 would flash an all-out "Looookkkkk Ouuuutttt Beeeeelooooowwww" sell signal, driving the Nasdaq toward the 1,000 area.

The alternate bullish scenario we've mentioned several times over the past three weeks, namely that "the Nasdaq reserves the right to mount one more large leg of rally," remains a low probability. If the bullish scenario does develop, it could carry the Nasdaq back to the 2,600-2,700 area. But make no mistake about it, we firmly believe that Nasdaq 5,000 will remain unapproachable for many years to come as the Great Bear Market of 2000-200[?] runs its course. 

Please take a moment to give us your thoughts on where you think the Nasdaq is headed. Cast your vote in our new online poll, just up and to the left of this column. Poll closes Friday at midnight    Grizzly

Grizzly's Daily Growl  Tues. 07/24/01  9:00 PM EDT
Things went from bad to worse today as the markets extended Monday's losses with another sharp sell-off. The DJIA sank steadily all day and closed down 183 points (1.8%) at 10,241. The Nasdaq managed to poke its head into the green briefly at 11:00 AM EDT before being caught in the downdraft. The Nasdaq closed down 29 points (1.5%) at 1,959.

It is finally sinking in to The Street anal-ysts what we've been saying for months: the economy is in deep trouble and no amount of pump-priming by the Fed can revive it, at least not anytime soon. None other than Sir Alan of Greenspan said today before Congress: "The period of sub-par economic performance ... is not yet over, and we are not free of the risk that economic weakness will be greater than currently anticipated and require further policy response." Renewed fears of massive default in Argentina are also weighing heavily on the markets.

Today's SSDDDC (Same Story Different Day Different Company) winner is actually a repeat winner. Lucent Technology announced it will lay off another 20,000 jobs, on top of the 19,000 in cuts previously announced. The company reported a loss of 35 cents a share, "beating" Street anal-ysts' estimates of "only" a 21 cent a share loss. They will also take a massive $7-9 billion restructuring write-off. Lucent is becoming opaque.

The DJIA has fallen 425 points over the last 4 sessions and the Nasdaq is down 6% in the last seven trading days. With all the pessimism evident on the Street, a brief but potentially sharp counter-trend bounce is likely. Following the bounce, we're still looking for a break of the July 11th low of 1,935 to usher in a quick drop to the 1,800 area (+/- 15 points), with the potential for much lower levels from there. A break of the April 4th low of 1,620 would flash an all-out "Looookkkkk Ouuuutttt Beeeeelooooowwww" sell signal, driving the Nasdaq towards the 1,000 area.

The bullish scenario that we've mentioned several times over the past three weeks, namely that "the Nasdaq reserves the right to mount one more large leg of rally," remains a low probability. If the bullish scenario does develop, it could carry the Nasdaq back to the 2,600-2,700 area. But make no mistake about it, we firmly believe that Nasdaq 5,000 will remain unapproachable for many years to come as the Great Bear Market of 2000-200[?] runs its course. 

Please take a moment to give us your thoughts on where you think the Nasdaq is headed. Cast your vote in our new online poll, just up and to the left of this column.    Grizzly

Grizzly's Daily Growl  Mon. 07/23/01  9:00 PM EDT
Greetings all, thanks for your patience during my brief vacation last week. The markets held their ground and went a net nowhere so we didn't miss very much.

The bearish trend resumed Monday as yet another round of fears about weakening earnings and the economy drove the markets sharply lower. The Nasdaq sank 41 points (2.0%) to 1,988, the first close below 2,000 in two weeks. The DJIA tumbled 152 points (1.4%) to 10,424. Meanwhile over in Japan, the Nikkei 225 fell to a new 16 year low at 11,609, its lowest close since January 7, 1985.

The bullish scenario that we've mentioned several times over the past three weeks, namely that "the Nasdaq reserves the right to mount one more large leg of rally," remains a low probability. If the bullish scenario does develop, it could carry the Nasdaq back to the 2,600-2,700 area. But make no mistake about it, we firmly believe that Nasdaq 5,000 will remain unapproachable for many years to come as the Great Bear Market of 2000-200[?] runs its course. 

Please take a moment to give us your thoughts on where you think the Nasdaq is headed. Cast your vote in our new online poll, just up and to the left of this column.    Grizzly

Grizzly's Daily Growl  Fri. 07/13/01  9:00 PM EDT
The markets digested and then extended yesterday's buying spree to close with their first winning week since May 17th. The Nasdaq gained 9 points Friday to close at 2,085 and the DJIA advanced 60 points (0.6%) to 10,539.

Next week will see a flood of earnings reports. There will be a scattering of good news, a bevy of bad news, and some historic disasters. The Street anal-ysts will be sweating out each and every report, looking for "proof" that the economy and therefore the markets have bottomed. 

The most bullish scenario at this point is the one we've mentioned several times over the past two weeks, namely that "the Nasdaq reserves the right to mount one more large leg of rally. We think this is a low probability, but it remains a viable scenario." The odds of such a move undoubtedly increased with Thurday's large rally. The question is, was it a news-induced "one-day wonder," or the start of a significant move? We'll know based on how the markets react to the next major negative earnings surprise, probably early next week.

If the bullish scenario does develop, it could carry the Nasdaq back to the 2,600-2,700 area. But make no mistake about it, we firmly believe that Nasdaq 5,000 will remain unapproachable for many years to come as the Great Bear Market of 2000-200[?] runs its course. 

Have a great weekend and please take a moment to give us your thoughts on where you think the Nasdaq is headed. Cast your vote in our new online poll, just up and to the left of this column.    Grizzly

Grizzly's Daily Growl  Thurs. 07/12/01  9:00 PM EDT
Well, the Great Bear taketh and the Great Bear giveth back. As we've said many times over the months, "bear market rallies tend to be sharp and swift (and short-lived)." 

Yesterday we said "There should be some fireworks at Thursday's opening." The markets did rocket higher right out of the gate this morning and it turned into a full-fledged buying frenzy. The Nasdaq soared 104 points (5.2%) to 2,075 and the DJIA roared ahead 238 points (2.3%) to 10,479.

So what was the "cause" of today's rally? (i.e. how desperate are the bulls?) It's hard to believe that today's euphoria was ignited by Motorola and Yahoo announcing they will exceed (by a solitary penny per share a piece) the already lowered expectations for the most recent quarter. Microsoft also had some positive comments after yesterday's close.

The markets have become so accustomed to dreadful earnings reports that merely meeting expectations is a rare and (short-term) catalyst for the brave bulls. Yet surpassing anal-ysts' guestimates by a solitary penny per share is nothing to boast about, it's nothing but a bean-counter's rounding difference.

The most bullish scenario at this point is the one we've mentioned several times over the past two weeks, namely that "the Nasdaq reserves the right to mount one more large leg of rally. We think this is a low probability, but it remains a viable scenario." The odds of such a move undoubtedly increased with today's large rally. The question is, was today a news-induced "one-day wonder," or the start of a significant move? We'll know based on how the markets react to the next major negative earnings surprise.

If the bullish scenario does develop, it could carry the Nasdaq back to the 2,600-2,700 area. But make no mistake about it, we firmly believe that Nasdaq 5,000 will remain unapproachable for many years to come as the Great Bear Market of 2000-200[?] runs its course. 

Please take a moment to give us your thoughts on where you think the Nasdaq is headed. Cast your vote in our new online poll, just up and to the left of this column.    Grizzly

Grizzly's Daily Growl  Wed. 07/11/01  9:00 PM EDT
Today in the Nasdaq we were looking for a very small degree "Wave 4 rebound, perhaps lasting into the afternoon, with the 1,990-2,000 area providing solid overhead resistance. This bounce should be followed by Wave 5 that brings the Nasdaq down toward our standing target of 1,900 (+/-15 points)." The Nasdaq rose to 1,975 at 10:00 AM EDT, and then quickly dropped to 1,935 at about 11:30. From there, the Nasdaq worked its way back higher to close up 9 points (0.5%) at 1,972. The DJIA followed suit, advancing 65 points (0.6%) to 10,241.

There should be some fireworks at Thursday's opening. The overnight futures are trading sharply higher as anal-ysts breathe a rare sigh of relief over a series of relatively positive earnings news. After today's close. Motorola and Yahoo announced they will exceed (by a whopping solitary penny a share a piece) the already lowered expectations for the most recent quarter. Microsoft also had some positive comments after the close.

For two weeks now, we've been looking for the drop in the Nasdaq to carry to 1,900 (+/-15). The Nasdaq may have registered a short-term bottom at today's low of 1,935, falling 20 points shy of the top end of our range. A counter-trend rebound that will correct at least the Nasdaq's most recent 10% drop over the last seven days appears ready to begin. 

The most bullish scenario at this point is the one we've mentioned several times over the past two weeks, namely that "the Nasdaq reserves the right to mount one more large leg of rally. We think this is a low probability, but it remains a viable scenario." The odds of such a move will undoubtedly increase with a large and sustained rally tomorrow. If the bullish scenario does develop, it could carry the Nasdaq back to the 2,600-2,700 area. But make no mistake about it, we firmly believe that Nasdaq 5,000 will remain unapproachable for many years to come as the Great Bear Market of 2000-200[?] runs its course.

Please take a moment to give us your thoughts on where you think the Nasdaq is headed. Cast your vote in our new online poll, just up and to the left of this column.    Grizzly

Grizzly's Daily Growl  Tues. 07/10/01  9:00 PM EDT
The markets opened slightly higher Tuesday but that was it for today's rally. By 10:00 AM EDT the decline resumed and carried the markets sharply lower. Both the Nasdaq and the DJIA closed just a few points off the lows of the day. The Nasdaq sank 64 points (3.2%) to 1,963. Only eight of the Nasdaq 100 stocks managed a gain on the day. The DJIA shed 124 points (1.2%) to 10,175. 

The Nasdaq has fallen five out of the last six trading days and has lost some 200 points, nearly 10%, over this span. Both the Nasdaq and DJIA are at lows not seen since mid-April.

Yesterday we said "In Elliott Wave terms, the choppy nature of today's rally in the Nasdaq tells us that it is a corrective move, with the one larger trend continuing to the downside." The Elliott Wave pattern of today's decline is about as clear as they come:

Wednesday should see a Wave 4 rebound, perhaps lasting into the afternoon, with the 1,990-2,000 area providing solid overhead resistance. This bounce should be followed by Wave 5 that brings the Nasdaq down toward our standing target of 1,900 (+/-15 points). After a solid bounce from this area, there's likely MUCH more to go on the downside as it FINALLY dawns on The Street that six interest rates cuts in the last six months, the most aggressive Fed easing every, have not and cannot rescue the economy and the markets. 

Please take a moment to give us your thoughts on where you think the Nasdaq is headed. Cast your vote in our new online poll, just up and to the left of this column.    Grizzly

Grizzly's Daily Growl  Mon. 07/09/01  9:00 PM EDT
Following last week's sell-off, we were looking for a bounce to today, and we got it, though it was hardly the rip-roaring rally the bulls were hoping for. The Nasdaq zigged and zagged its way to a 22 point (1.3%) gain at 2,027. It was the Nasdaq's first winning session of the month. The DJIA rose 47 points (0.5%) to 10,299.

After the close, today's SSDDDC (Same Story Different Day Different Company) winner came forward and dropped another earnings warning. Fiber optics maker Corning said it will take a $5 billion write-off of goodwill and excess inventory. What's most troubling for the bulls who are looking for a second half economic recovery is the company expects the downturn in capital spending by its customers "could last another 12 to 18 months."

In Elliott Wave terms, the choppy nature of today's rally in the Nasdaq tells us that it is a corrective move, with the one larger trend continuing to the downside. Today's counter-trend bounce is likely to continue for another day or two before the next leg of the decline ensues.

Since last Tuesday our outlook has been: "a breach of 2,075 should usher in the quick drop to the 1,900 area (+/-15 points) we've been looking for, with much more risk to the downside from there."  After a solid bounce from this area, there's likely MUCH more to go on the downside as it FINALLY dawns on The Street that six interest rates cuts in the last six months, the most aggressive Fed easing every, have not and cannot rescue the economy and the markets. 

Please take a moment to give us your thoughts on where you think the Nasdaq is headed. Cast your vote in our new online poll, just up and to the left of this column.    Grizzly

Grizzly's Daily Growl  Fri. 07/06/01  9:00 PM EDT
We said last night "The Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 futures are down sharply in early evening trading, well below Thursday's cash closings. And with more potentially disappointing news coming Friday morning with the employment report, the table is set for a sharp sell-off at the opening." Today's employment report shocked The Street, with more than 114,000 jobs lost last month versus anal-ysts' forecasts for a loss of "only" 40,000. 

Since Tuesday our outlook has been: "a breach of 2,075 should usher in the quick drop to the 1,900 area we've been looking for, with much more risk to the downside from there." The Nasdaq melted right through 2,075 and didn't stop until 2,000. The Nasdaq closed just a hair above the low of the day at 2,004, off 76 points (3.7%), its lowest level in nearly eleven weeks. The DJIA evaporated by 227 points (2.2%) to 10,253.

Given the Nasdaq's 136 point (6%) drop in just the last two days, we must be alert for a sharp but short-lived counter-trend bounce on Monday. But that's all it should be. We maintain our stance that the next stop for this leg of the decline should be the 1,900 area (+/-15 points). After a solid bounce from this area, there's likely MUCH more to go on the downside as it FINALLY dawns on The Street that six interest rates cuts in the last six months, the most aggressive Fed easing every, have not and cannot rescue the economy and the markets. 

According to Thomson Financial/First Call, 68% of the 1,053 companies that have issued statements about their second-quarter 2001 earnings have said their results would "disappoint." Moreover, anal-ysts now expect companies in the S&P 500 to report that profits fell 17% in the second quarter versus the prior year, the biggest year over year drop since the third quarter of 1991.

Stay cool this weekend and please take a moment to give us your thoughts on where you think the Nasdaq is headed. Cast your vote in our new online poll, just up and to the left of this column. Grizzly

Grizzly's Daily Growl  Thurs. 07/05/01  9:00 PM EDT
As we discuss in this month's Grizzly's Growling Report, we don't buy for a second the widespread optimism on The Street that the economy will recover in the second half of the year. Yet another round of corporate warnings rocked the markets today. The Nasdaq opened down 20 points and sank steadily to close at the low of the day at 2,080, down 61 points (2.9%). The DJIA held up better, losing "only" 91 points (0.9%) to 10,480. 

Today's SSDDDC (Same Story Different Day Different Company) winner was British telecom giant Marconi PLC, which got boiled like a pot of macaroni for a 52% loss, down $3.68 to $3.35 in ADR trading.

Another round of earnings reports hit The Street after the close Thursday, "led" by alphabet soupers AMD, BMC, and EMC. The Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 futures are down sharply in early evening trading, well below Thursday's cash closings. And with more potentially disappointing news coming Friday morning with the unemployment report, the table is set for a possible sharp sell-off at the opening.

The Nasdaq closed Thursday just a handful of points above the 2,075 resistance level, key for the short-term bullish case. With the futures suggesting a sharp drop at Friday's open, this resistance and the bullish case should melt like butter on a hot plate. Our outlook from Tuesday stands: "a breach of 2,075 should usher in the quick drop to the 1,900 area we’ve been looking for, with much more risk to the downside from there." 

Please take a moment to give us your thoughts on where you think the Nasdaq is headed. Cast your vote in our new online poll, just up and to the left of this column.    Grizzly

Grizzly's Daily Growl  Mon. 07/02/01  9:00 PM EDT
The Nasdaq bounced around today with little conviction while the DJIA surged on yet again renewed hopes that the economy will recover in the second half of the year. As we discuss in this month's Grizzly's Growling Report, we don't buy it for a second. 

The DJIA gained 91 points (0.9%) to close at 10,594 while the Nasdaq slipped 12 points (0.6%) to 2,148.

Again as we've been saying for the past two weeks, "the Nasdaq reserves the right to mount one more large leg of counter-trend rally. We think this is a low probability, but it remains a viable scenario." 

There's little change in the short-term outlook for the Nasdaq. The 2,075 level, which had provided solid resistance to the Nasdaq until last Wednesday, is now key support for the short-term bullish case. Any breakdown below this area should usher in the quick drop to the 1,900 area we’ve been looking for, with much more risk to the downside from there.

Tuesday will be a short-session, with the exchanges closing at 1:00 PM EDT and the markets will be closed on Wednesday. Grizzly will be taking advantage of the holiday as well, so barring a crash or major event on Tuesday, the next daily update will be Thursday evening July 5th at 9:00 PM EDT. 

Please take a moment to give us your thoughts on where you think the Nasdaq is headed. Cast your vote in our new online poll, just up and to the left of this column.    Grizzly