The Nasdaq popped 26 points higher at 10:15 AM EDT and then zigged and zagged 15 points above and below the 1,800 level. A late bounce allowed the Nasdaq to close "bearly" above 1,800 at 1,805, up 14 points (0.8%) on the day, trimming its losses for the week to 5.8% and 11% for the month.

The DJIA popped 117 points higher and was able to poke its nose above 10K for a few moments in the early morning. It then danced above and below the 9,950 level, where it closed, up 30 points (0.3%). The DJIA lost 4.5% on the week and 5.4% for the month.

The short-term Elliott Wave pattern of today's attempted rally on the Nasdaq was not "impulsive" but "corrective," strongly suggesting that the Bear is still at the table for at least one more leg down, likely early next week. A sharp but counter-trend rally is likely to follow, lasting at least 3-5 days. A rally of some sort is desperately needed to work off the extreme historically oversold technical condition of the markets. 

As mentioned yesterday, the NYSE TRIN closed at 2.27 Thursday, on top of Wednesday's 2.01. The last back-to-back readings higher that 2.0 were back at the Crash of '87, when TRIN registered 5.2 on Friday October 16th and 11.1 on Monday the 19th. Let's be clear, we think this week's situation "bears" little resemblance to the Crash of '87, and we firmly believe that we are not at the bottom of this bear market, though a short-term bottom should be registered within days. 

Following the rally, we think we'll likely see a retest of the April low of 1,619 on the Nasdaq sometime in mid-September. If the 1,619 area doesn't hold, we see only minor and temporary support until all the way down toward our next long-term target of the 1,000 area. See this month's Grizzly's Growlings Report. 

If the Nasdaq is unable to mount a rally early next week, a breach of the 1,730 area (+/-15 points) will trigger our "loooookkkkk ouuuuttttt beeeellllooooowww" scenario.

At this point, we think that only some sort of unexpected dramatic event such as an inter-meeting 100 basis point rate cut by the Fed or an even less likely cut in the capital gains tax rate can put the intermediate-term bullish scenario back on the radar screen. 

Over in Japan, the Nikkei 225 tanked another 225 points Friday to close at 10,714, a 17-year closing low. Another industrial Giant, Hitachi, announced it was laying off 14,700 jobs, joining Toshiba, Kyocera and others who announced massive job cuts this week.

Have a great weekend and tune in Monday morning for a full Grizzly's Growlings Report. Please take a moment to give us your thoughts on where you think the Nasdaq is headed. Cast your vote in our online poll, just up and to the left of this column.    Grizzly

Grizzly's Daily Growl  Thurs. 08/30/01  9:00 PM EDT
It was quite a "Thriller" on The Street today as alleged "King of Pop" Michael Jackson rang the opening bell on the Nasdaq. 

His Royal Weirdness looked lost as he peered out into the belly of the beast. Indeed the Nasdaq gapped lower by 26 points, right through our cited critical support of 1,818 for the Bulls, and never looked back. The 1,780 area did halt the decline, at least for today. The Nasdaq closed down 51 points (2.8%) at 1,792, its lowest close since April 9th. The DJIA melted right through the 10,000 area for the first time since early April. The 9,875 area did offer support as the DJIA closed down 171 points (1.7%) at 9,920, also its lowest close since April 9th. 

The DJIA has now mini-crashed 475 points and the Nasdaq 121 points (6%) over the last three sessions. There was a taste of panic in the markets today, and the Bulls have run for cover. The market technicals remain at or near historic oversold levels. NYSE TRIN closed at 2.27 today, on top of Wednesday's 2.01. We're hard-pressed to find the last such back-to-back occurrence of TRIN above 2.0. We're still checking the data, but the last time may have been, uh oh, back at the Crash of '87, when TRIN registered 5.2 on Friday October 16th and 11.1 on Monday the 19th. 

As we've been discussing over the last two weeks, today's Nasdaq break of 1,818 should now put an end to any serious bullish talk, and will likely lead to a retest of the April low of 1,619 over the next several weeks. Below 1,619, there's only minor support until all the way down toward our next long-term target of the 1,000 area. See this month's Grizzly's Growlings Report. 

The short-term Elliott Wave picture suggests that a small degree five wave pattern from Monday's 1,934 high is nearing completion. One more sharp down leg, likely tomorrow morning, should mark a short-term bottom. The 1,730 area (+/-15 points) is a good target. If this area is breached in the next few days, then "loooookkkkk ouuuuttttt beeeellllooooowww!" 

At this point, we think that only some sort of unexpected dramatic event such as an inter-meeting 100 basis point rate cut by the Fed or an even less likely cut in the capital gains tax rate can put the bullish scenario back on the radar screen. 

In early Friday trading, the Nikkei 225 has tanked another 250 points to the 10,700 area. Stay tuned for a wild ride on Friday on Wall Street!

Please take a moment to give us your thoughts on where you think the Nasdaq is headed. Cast your vote in our online poll, just up and to the left of this column.     Grizzly

Grizzly's Daily Growl  Wed. 08/29/01  9:00 PM EDT
Before the market open, the gub'ment issued a revision to the 2nd quarter GDP figures, reducing the stated growth from 0.7% down to 0.2%. So was that good news or bad news for the markets? (We think it was irrelevant.) The futures jumped from solidly negative to solidly higher on the news, and the markets did pop a bit higher at the open. 

But sellers jumped all over the weak rally and by 10:30 AM EDT the DJIA was down 120 points and the Nasdaq was off 31 points. The markets stabilized the rest of the day and traded within a narrow range, again on relatively light volume. The DJIA closed down 131 points (1.3%) at 10,091 and the Nasdaq slipped 22 points (1.2%) at 1,843. 

The DJIA now sits (it's too weak to stand) at its lowest close since mid-April. The Nasdaq sits just 25 points above critical support for the bulls, last Wednesday's 1,818 low. A break thereof would put an end to any short-term bullish talk, and will likely lead to a retest of the April low of 1,619. Below 1,619, there's only minor support until all the way down toward our next long-term target of the 1,000 area. See this month's Grizzly's Growlings Report. 

However, pessimism is widespread and market technicals are at or near historic oversold levels. NYSE TRIN hit 2.01 today, a rare and very oversold level and usually indicative of a short-term bottom. The potential for a sharp counter-trend bounce, lasting perhaps 3-5 days, is very high.

Only a quick rally back above 2,000 would add credibility to the low-probability bullish case. But make no mistake about it, if the Nasdaq is able to rally here and now, we firmly believe that Nasdaq 5,000 will remain unapproachable for many years to come as the Great Bear Market of 2000-200[?] runs its course.

After Wednesday's Wall Street close, SSDDDC (Same Story Different Day Different Company) "winner" Sun Microsystems announced it will likely post a loss in its current quarter, contrary to The Street anal-ysts' expectations of a small profit. SSDDDC runner-up Gateway announced it will slash its work force by 25%, some 4,600 jobs.

In early Thursday trading, the Nikkei 225 is below 11,000 for the first time in nearly 17 years. Yesterday we mentioned that Toshiba's president and CEO stated recently that "This is not just a temporary I.T. slump. We are entering into a phase of structural depression" (emphasis added). The dreaded "D" word. We'll have more to say on this in next week's Grizzly's Growlings Report. Today Kyocera, another Japanese industrial giant, announced it was cutting 10,000 jobs, mostly at its U.S. subsidiaries.

Please take a moment to give us your thoughts on where you think the Nasdaq is headed. Cast your vote in our online poll, just up and to the left of this column.     Grizzly

Grizzly's Daily Growl  Tues. 08/28/01  9:00 PM EDT
Consumer confidence, or lack thereof, sent the markets sharply lower today. Despite the fact that million of consumers now have their $300 to $600 in tax "rebates" in their pockets, despite the fact that millions of homeowners have refinanced their mortgages and have thousands more in the bank (or in the markets) than they did a year ago, despite seven interest rate cuts this year, the most aggressive Fed easing in history, consumers are feeling flat-footed. 

Yesterday we mentioned that Toshiba is laying off 19,000 workers. Toshiba's president and CEO went on to say "This is not just a temporary I.T. slump. We are entering into a phase of structural depression" (emphasis added). The dreaded "D" word. We'll have more to say on this in next week's Grizzly's Growlings Report. The Nikkei 225 sank to another new 17-year low in early Wednesday morning trading, to just above 11,000.

The DJIA sank steadily right out of the gate and was down 140 points at 11:00 AM EDT. A half-hearted rally attempt pulled the DJIA up to down only 100 at 2:00 PM before another wave of selling pushed the DJIA down to close at 10,222, down 160 points (1.5%). The Nasdaq took the same path and closed at the low of the day, down 47 points (2.5%) at 1,865. How bad of a down day was it? Only six of the 50 top most active issues (across all exchanges) declined on the day. 

Last Friday we likened that day's isolated buying frenzy to another one-day rally, back on July 12th when the Nasdaq soared 104 points and the DJIA roared ahead 238 points. The markets made a short-term top the next day, July 13th, and the Nasdaq then sold off 145 points (7%) over the next eight trading days. The markets followed suit this time as well and have now given back all of last Friday's rally, and then some.

Short-term, the key level for the Nasdaq is last Wednesday's 1,818 low. A break thereof would put an end to the low-probability bullish case we've been discussing, and will likely lead to a retest of the April low of 1,619. Below 1,619, there's only minor support until all the way down toward our next long-term target of the 1,000 area. See this month's Grizzly's Growlings Report.

Only a quick rally back above 2,000 would add credibility to the low-probability bullish case. But make no mistake about it, if the Nasdaq is able to rally here and now, we firmly believe that Nasdaq 5,000 will remain unapproachable for many years to come as the Great Bear Market of 2000-200[?] runs its course.

Please take a moment to give us your thoughts on where you think the Nasdaq is headed. Cast your vote in our online poll, just up and to the left of this column.     Grizzly

Grizzly's Daily Growl  Mon. 08/27/01  9:00 PM EDT
Monday saw a feeble attempt at follow-through to Friday's buying frenzy. The DJIA popped 15 points higher at the open, and that was the high of the day. The DJIA zigged and zagged the rest of the day until a last half-hour sell-off pushed it down 41 points (0.4%) to close at 10,385. The Nasdaq slipped 20 points by 10:30 AM EDT, rallied to up 17 at 3:00, and then slipped again to close down 4 points at 1,912.

Over in Tokyo, the Nikkei 225 is hovering just a few points above its 17-year lows. Toshiba announced today it will cut 19,000 jobs.

Today's relatively narrow trading ranges and light volume did little to clarify the short-term outlook for the markets.

The most bullish intermediate term scenario at this point is the one we've been mentioning over the past two months, namely that "the Nasdaq reserves the right to mount one more large leg of rally. We think this remains a low probability, but it remains a viable scenario." A move above the July 2nd high of 2,165 would open the door to further advances toward the 2,600-2,700 area. For the bullish case to remain intact, last Wednesday's 1,818 lows must hold. A rally back above 2,000 would add credibility to this bullish case. But make no mistake about it, if the Nasdaq is able to rally here and now, we firmly believe that Nasdaq 5,000 will remain unapproachable for many years to come as the Great Bear Market of 2000-200[?] runs its course.

Otherwise, a convincing break of 1,818, say to 1,750, would put an end to the bullish case and likely lead to a retest of the April low of 1,619. Below 1,619, there's only minor support until all the way down toward our next long-term target of the 1,000 area. See this month's Grizzly's Growlings Report.

Please take a moment to give us your thoughts on where you think the Nasdaq is headed. Cast your vote in our online poll, just up and to the left of this column.     Grizzly

Grizzly's Daily Growl  Fri. 08/24/01  9:00 PM EDT
Well, the Bear Market taketh and the Bear Market giveth back. As we've said many times over the months, "bear market rallies tend to be sharp and swift (and short-lived)." 

Yesterday we mentioned that the markets may get a pop today from "positive" statements from two burst-bubble poster children, Cisco Systems and Lucent. The pop turned into a full-fledged buying frenzy. The DJIA stormed higher by 210 points at Noon EDT but then treaded water the rest of the day. The DJIA closed up 194 points (1.9%) at 10,423. The Nasdaq jumped 60 points higher by Noon and then extended its gains in the afternoon to close up 74 points (4%) at 1,917. Today's gains were enough to pull the markets out of the red for the week overall. For the week, the DJIA gained 1.8% and the Nasdaq advanced 2.6%.

So what was the "cause" of today's rally? (i.e. how desperate are the bulls?) It's hard to believe that today's bullish euphoria was ignited by the "great news" that Cisco Systems' "business may be stabilizing." The markets have become so accustomed to dreadful news reports that merely announcing that business is "stabilizing" is a rare and (short-term) catalyst for the brave bulls. 

The last time the markets moved so dramatically in one day was back on July 12th when the Nasdaq soared 104 points (5.2%) to 2,075 and the DJIA roared ahead 238 points (2.3%) to 10,479. On that day Motorola and Yahoo announcing they will exceed (by a solitary penny per share a piece) the already lowered expectations for the most recent quarter. Microsoft also issued some positive comments. The markets made a short-term top the next day, July 13th, and then sold off 145 points (7%) over the next eight trading days. 

The most bullish intermediate term scenario at this point is the one we've been mentioning over the past month, namely that "the Nasdaq reserves the right to mount one more large leg of rally. We think this remains a low probability, but it remains a viable scenario." The odds of such a move undoubtedly increased with today's large rally. A move above the July 2nd high of 2,165 would open the door to further advances toward the 2,600-2,700 area. But make no mistake about it, if the Nasdaq is able to rally here and now, we firmly believe that Nasdaq 5,000 will remain unapproachable for many years to come as the Great Bear Market of 2000-200[?] runs its course.

For the bullish case to remain intact, Wednesday's 1,818 lows must hold. A rally back above 2,000 would add significant credibility to this bullish case.

Otherwise, a convincing break of 1,818, say to 1,750 would put an end to the bullish case and likely lead to a retest of the April low of 1,619. Below 1,619, there's only minor support until all the way down toward our next long-term target of the 1,000 area. See this month's Grizzly's Growlings Report.

Have a great weekend and please take a moment to give us your thoughts on where you think the Nasdaq is headed. Cast your vote in our online poll, just up and to the left of this column. This poll closes tonight and the we'll have a new poll for your forecast for September 30th.     Grizzly

Grizzly's Daily Growl  Thurs 08/23/01  9:00 PM EDT
The markets tried in vain today to add some follow-through to Wednesday's bounce. The Nasdaq popped 23 points higher by 10:30 AM EDT, but it was all down hill from there. The Nasdaq closed at the low of the day, down 17 points (0.9%) at 1,843. The DJIA could only poke its nose into the green for a few minutes in the early going before zigging and zagging its way to a 48 point (0.5%) loss at 10,229. The Nikkei 225 tanked to a new 17-year low in Wednesday's trading.

After today's Wall Street close, two burst-bubble poster children, Cisco Systems and Lucent, issued "positive" statements about their restructuring plans that has the overnight futures bouncing up a bit in early evening trading. We'll see if the gains can hold up overnight. 

Today's Elliott Wave pattern on the Nasdaq indicates a five-wave drop from the morning peak is complete, or nearly so, suggesting a day or two or counter-trend rebound. If instead the Nasdaq drops from here, a breach of the 1,750 area would likely lead to a retest of the April low of 1,619. Below 1,619, there's only minor support until all the way down toward our next long-term target of the 1,000 area. See this month's Grizzly's Growlings Report.

There is a lot of pessimism on The Street right now, and the technicals are still extremely oversold, particularly the TRIN (Arms) index. These are the only factors keeping alive our low-probability intermediate term bullish count. Time has nearly run out for this scenario. Wednesday's 1,818 lows must hold and the rally must begin swiftly and sharply from here. As we've been saying for a month now:

A move above the July 2nd high of 2,165 would open the door to further advances toward the 2,600-2,700 area. But make no mistake about it, if the Nasdaq is able to rally here and now, we firmly believe that Nasdaq 5,000 will remain unapproachable for many years to come as the Great Bear Market of 2000-200[?] runs its course.

It would take a rally back above 2,000 to add credibility to this bullish case.

Please take a moment to give us your thoughts on where you think the Nasdaq is headed. Cast your vote in our online poll, just up and to the left of this column. This poll closes Friday and the we'll have a new poll for your forecast for September 30th.   Grizzly

In Elliott Wave terms, trading on the Nasdaq shows three waves down from the today's peak, strongly suggesting one more small degree up and down sequence to complete a five-wave move is ahead. Wednesday morning might well bring a washout and conclusion to the post-Fed announcement selling. This should bring the Nasdaq into our standing target area 1,800 +/- 15, which we first posted on July 23rd.  This area would be a good place for the Nasdaq to finally mount a solid rebound, but it may just pause there briefly before the next leg of the Great Bear Market of 2000-200[?] resumes. 

The Nasdaq tried to comply, popping 20 points higher at the open, and then twice dropping to within 3 points of 1,815, the upper end our target range. From there, the Nasdaq mounted a strong rally to close up 29 points (1.6%) at 1,860. We can live with missing our target posted a month ago by only 3 points when the Nasdaq was at 2,040, if indeed today marks at least a temporary bottom.

Still, today's Nasdaq's advance recouped only half of yesterday's post-Fed announcement plunge. The DJIA also recovered about half of yesterday afternoon's plunge and closed up 103 Points (1%) at 10,277. 

There is a lot of pessimism on The Street right now, and the technicals are still extremely oversold, particularly the TRIN (Arms) index. These are the only factors keeping alive our low-probability intermediate term bullish count. Time has nearly run out for this scenario. Today's 1,818 lows must hold and the rally must begin swiftly and sharply from here. As we've been saying for a month now:

A move above the July 2nd high of 2,165 would open the door to further advances toward the 2,600-2,700 area. But make no mistake about it, if the Nasdaq is able to rally here and now, we firmly believe that Nasdaq 5,000 will remain unapproachable for many years to come as the Great Bear Market of 2000-200[?] runs its course.

A rally back above 2,000 would add credibility to this case, though far from guaranteeing it.

Otherwise, a solid breach of the 1,800 area, say to 1,750, would likely lead to a retest of the April low of 1,619. Below 1,619, there's only minor support until all the way down toward our next long-term target of the 1,000 area. See this month's Grizzly's Growlings Report.

Please take a moment to give us your thoughts on where you think the Nasdaq is headed. Cast your vote in our online poll, just up and to the left of this column. This poll closes Friday and the we'll have a new poll for your forecast for September 30th.   Grizzly

Grizzly's Daily Growl  Tues. 08/21/01  9:00 PM EDT
As the old adage goes, "Be careful what you wish for, you may get it." Well, good ol' Sir Alan of Greenspan & Co. delivered exactly what the markets had not only wished for, but demanded. Today's 25 basis point cut in the Federal Funds rate was the seventh cut so far this year, the most aggressive Fed easing in its 88 year history. See Jim Stack's Chart of the Week for further details.

Today's results? Once again, as it has several times earlier this year, the markets tanked immediately following the rate cut announcement. The DJIA was at its high of the day, up 58 points, just prior to 2:15 PM EDT and promptly plunged 222 points in the next 100 minutes of trading to close the day off 146 points (1.4%) at 10,174.

Just prior to the announcement, the Nasdaq was also at its high of the day, up 12 points, and then tanked 62 points to close the day down 50 (2.7%) at 1,831. Both the DJIA and the Nasdaq closed within a few ticks of the low of the day, perhaps indicating that the selling isn't yet over, it just ran out of time. 

In Elliott Wave terms, trading on the Nasdaq shows three waves down from the today's peak, strongly suggesting one more small degree up and down sequence to complete a five-wave move is ahead. Wednesday morning might well bring a washout and conclusion to the post-Fed announcement selling. This should bring the Nasdaq into our standing target area 1,800 +/- 15, which we first posted on July 23rd.  This area would be a good place for the Nasdaq to finally mount a solid rebound, but it may just pause there briefly before the next leg of the Great Bear Market of 2000-200[?] resumes. 

From here, a solid breach of the 1,800 area, say to 1,750, would likely lead to a retest of the April low of 1,619. Below 1,619, there's only minor support until all the way down toward our next long-term target of the 1,000 area. See this month's Grizzly's Growlings Report.

Our low-probability intermediate term bullish count becomes even less probable following each day of selling. Nevertheless, we must respect the possibility that if somehow the Nasdaq is able to get its act together and climb back above the July 2nd high of 2,165, the door would be opened to further advances toward the 2,600-2,700 area. But make no mistake about it, we firmly believe that Nasdaq 5,000 will remain unapproachable for many years to come as the Great Bear Market of 2000-200[?] runs its course. 

Over in Japan today, the Nikkei 225 sank to yet another new 16 year low before rebounding a bit into the close. Tuesday's Wall Street sell-off will likely extended to Wednesday morning trading in Tokyo.

Please take a moment to give us your thoughts on where you think the Nasdaq is headed. Cast your vote in our online poll, just up and to the left of this column.    Grizzly

Grizzly's Daily Growl  Mon. 08/20/01  9:00 PM EDT
The markets staged a modest and unimpressive rebound rally today. Perhaps it was just a reflex to the extreme oversold technical conditions. Perhaps it was expectation in advance of tomorrow's universally expected 25 basis point cut by the Sir Alan of Greenspan and the Fed. Perhaps it was the start of a decent counter-trend rally. Perhaps none of the above.

As CNNFN characterized today's action: "A late surge on Wall Street Monday was led by renewed hope for an economic and corporate profit turnaround..." (emphasis added). As we mentioned in this month's Grizzly's Growlings Report, hope is about all the bulls have going for them.

The DJIA recovered a bit more than half of Friday's losses as it zigged and zagged its way to a 79 point (0.7%) gain to close at 10,320. The Nasdaq's bounce was more anemic and fragile. As we said Friday, " sellers may run out of gas for a few days anytime soon." After sinking a net 240 points (11%) over the last 14 trading sessions, the Nasdaq did chop its way higher today by 14 points (0.7%) to close at 1,881. 

The markets may see a bit more rally Tuesday if Sir Alan delivers the goods and offers more of his patented and ambiguous financial gobbledygook that the bulls can use to add more "hope" to their desperation.

The Nasdaq appears on track toward our next target of the 1,800 area (+/- 15 points). The 2,015 area should offer solid overhead resistance to any counter-trend bounce that may develop. If Sir Alan disappoints the markets, then "loookkkkkk oouuuuttttt beeeeelooooooow." 

Our low-probability intermediate term bullish count becomes even less probable as each day passes. Nevertheless, we must respect the possibility that if somehow the Nasdaq is able to get its act together and climb back above the July 2nd high of 2,165, the door would be opened to further advances toward the 2,600-2,700 area. But make no mistake about it, we firmly believe that Nasdaq 5,000 will remain unapproachable for many years to come as the Great Bear Market of 2000-200[?] runs its course.

Please take a moment to give us your thoughts on where you think the Nasdaq is headed. Cast your vote in our online poll, just up and to the left of this column.    Grizzly

Grizzly's Daily Growl  Fri. 08/17/01  9:00 PM EDT
The markets opened sharply lower again today, on the heels of yesterday's after-hours warnings from Dell and HP, today's news from Ford that it has blown a gasket, and the Fed's report of a greater than expected trade deficit for June.

At 10:15 AM the Nasdaq sank 60 points to the 1,870 area. For the next four hours the Nasdaq danced five points above and below 1,880 before finally selling off a bit more in the last hour. The Nasdaq closed just a few points off its low of the day at 1,867, down 63 points (3.3%) The Nasdaq has fallen 10 out of last 12 sessions and now "sits" at the lowest close since April 10th. (The Nasdaq has been too weak to "stand" on anything.)

The DJIA fell steadily all day until 3:30 PM when it was down 212 points. The DJIA rallied in the last half-hour to close down "only" 151 points (1.5%) at 10,241.

How bad of a down day was it? 34 of the top 35 volume leaders lost ground on the day. The only winner of this bunch? Lucent gained a mere .02 cents. How bad might it get? As Bill Fleckenstein of GrantsInvestor.com puts it, "The market looks to me to be in the diciest position of any time since the fall of 1987." And we though we were bearish!

The markets have had every excuse to rally over the last two weeks. The technical condition of the markets, particularly the TRIN (ARMS) index, has been very oversold. The Elliott Wave patterns have been calling for at least a brief counter-trend bounce. Every rally attempt since August 2nd has failed. But as we've said many times in past reports, surprises (and disappointments) in a bear market will be to the downside.

The Nasdaq appears on track toward our next target of the 1,800 area (+/- 15 points), though the sellers may run out of gas for a few days anytime soon. They're overdue. The 2,015 area should offer solid overhead resistance to any counter-trend bounce that may develop. 

Our low-probability intermediate term bullish count becomes even less probable with each day of sell-off. Nevertheless, we must respect the possibility that if somehow the Nasdaq is able to get its act together and climb back above the July 2nd high of 2,165, the door would be opened to further advances toward the 2,600-2,700 area. But make no mistake about it, we firmly believe that Nasdaq 5,000 will remain unapproachable for many years to come as the Great Bear Market of 2000-200[?] runs its course.

Have a great weekend and please take a moment to give us your thoughts on where you think the Nasdaq is headed. Cast your vote in our online poll, just up and to the left of this column.    Grizzly

Grizzly's Daily Growl  Thurs. 08/16/01  9:00 PM EDT
The markets decided to sell-off right out of the gate before staging the rally we were looking for today. At 10:15 AM EDT the DJIA was off 75 points and the Nasdaq was down 40. The DJIA stabilized around the 10,275 area and the Nasdaq found good support at 1,880. A respectable afternoon rally pulled the markets into the green at the close. The DJIA gained 46 points (0.4%) and the Nasdaq edged up 11 points (0.6%) to 1,930. 

Short-term, the Elliott Wave patterns on the Nasdaq are suggesting that a five wave decline may have ended this morning at 1,879. A counter-trend bounce is now in progress and it may extend a few more days before the next leg of the decline resumes toward our target of the 1,800 area (+/- 15 points). The 2,015 area should offer solid overhead resistance to the rally. 

Our low-probability intermediate term bullish count remains: If somehow the Nasdaq is able to get its act together and climb back above the July 2nd high of 2,165, the door would be opened to further advances toward the 2,600-2,700 area. But make no mistake about it, we firmly believe that Nasdaq 5,000 will remain unapproachable for many years to come as the Great Bear Market of 2000-200[?] runs its course.

Please take a moment to give us your thoughts on where you think the Nasdaq is headed. Cast your vote in our online poll, just up and to the left of this column.    Grizzly

Grizzly's Daily Growl  Wed. 08/15/01  9:00 PM EDT
On Monday we weren't sure which path the markets would take over the short-term. Today's action showed that the path of least resistance is definitely to the downside. The Nasdaq sank steadily from get-go today and by Noon EDT it was down 35 points at 1,930. The Nasdaq stabilized and then drifted a bit lower to close near the low of the day at 1,919, down 46 points (2.3%). The Nasdaq has now dropped eight out of the last nine trading days and "sits" at its lowest close since April 14th. (The Nasdaq has been too weak to stand.)

The DJIA fared a bit better today, actually poking its nose into positive ground at 2:30 before before starting an 85 point slide. The DJIA closed down 66 points (0.6%) at 10,346. Over in Japan, the Nikkei 225 is tanking again in early Thursday morning trading.

Short-term, the Elliott Wave patterns on the Nasdaq are suggesting a few days of choppy rally before the next leg of the decline resumes, on track toward our target of the 1,800 area (+/- 15 points), There's much lower potential thereafter following a decent bounce from the 1,800 area.

Our low-probability intermediate term bullish count remains: If somehow the Nasdaq is able to get its act together and climb back above the July 2nd high of 2,165, the door would be opened to further advances toward the 2,600-2,700 area. But make no mistake about it, we firmly believe that Nasdaq 5,000 will remain unapproachable for many years to come as the Great Bear Market of 2000-200[?] runs its course.

Please take a moment to give us your thoughts on where you think the Nasdaq is headed. Cast your vote in our online poll, just up and to the left of this column.    Grizzly

The short-term outlook for the Nasdaq is still open to several interpretations. A counter-trend three-wave bounce from Friday morning's low may have ended this afternoon at 1,986, indicating the next move should be a resumption of the decline to our target area of 1,800 area (+/- 15 points). However, the bounce can also be counted as a five wave pattern in progress, indicating several more days of rally ahead before the decline resumes.

Our low-probability intermediate term bullish count remains: If somehow the Nasdaq is able to get its act together and climb back above the July 2nd high of 2,165, the door would be opened to further advances toward the 2,600-2,700 area. But make no mistake about it, we firmly believe that Nasdaq 5,000 will remain unapproachable for many years to come as the Great Bear Market of 2000-200[?] runs its course.

Please take a moment to give us your thoughts on where you think the Nasdaq is headed. Cast your vote in our online poll, just up and to the left of this column.    Grizzly

NOTE: Grizzly will be out of the office Tuesday so barring an all-out crash or other major market event, the next update will be Wednesday evening. 

Grizzly's Daily Growl  Fri. 08/10/01  9:00 PM EDT
The markets sold off sharply at the opening, as they were apparently surprised and confused by the deflationary PPI report, which plunged 0.9% in July, the largest drop in eight years. At 10:15 AM EDT, the DJIA had slumped 101 points and the Nasdaq by 47. From there, the DJIA mounted a quick and respectable rally back to the 10,400 -10,425 area, where it languished and closed at 10,416, up 117 (1.1%). The Nasdaq's bounce off the morning low was less swift and less convincing than the DJIA's. The Nasdaq poked its head into the green for just a few minutes before dropping back and closing the day down 7 points (0.3%) at 1,956, its lowest close in nearly four months. The Nasdaq fell every day this week and sank 5%. The DJIA slipped 1% overall for the choppy week.

Despite today's intra-day bounce, the market technicals are firmly in oversold condition. The Elliott Wave pattern of today Nasdaq action is open to several interpretations. If today's morning low of 1,916 is breached, the next stop should be our target area of 1,800 area (+/- 15 points). If the afternoon high of 1,967 is surpassed on Monday, the bounce will likely carry back toward the 2,025 area before the next leg of the decline resumes.

Again, the low-probability alternate bullish count we've been discussing has become even less likely following today's sharp morning drop. If somehow the Nasdaq is able to get its act together and climb back above the July 2nd high of 2,165, the door would be opened to further advances toward the 2,600-2,700 area. But make no mistake about it, we firmly believe that Nasdaq 5,000 will remain unapproachable for many years to come as the Great Bear Market of 2000-200[?] runs its course.

Have a great weekend and please take a moment to give us your thoughts on where you think the Nasdaq is headed. Cast your vote in our online poll, just up and to the left of this column.    Grizzly

Grizzly's Daily Growl  Thurs. 08/09/01  9:00 PM EDT
The markets digested yesterday's sharp losses and again valiantly tried to rally. At 10:30AM EDT the DJIA was down 88 points and the Nasdaq was down 25. From there, the markets zigged and zagged their way back towards breakeven. The DJIA managed to poke its head into the green to close up 5 points at 10,298. The Nasdaq slipped 3 points to 1,963.

The Elliott Wave patterns of today action are almost certainly corrective in nature, strongly suggesting that we haven't seen a lasting low. There may be a bit more choppy rally tomorrow to complete the counter-trend bounce before the next leg of the decline resumes. Over the next week or so, the Nasdaq should work its way lower toward our target area of 1,800 area (+/- 15 points).

The low-probability alternate bullish count we've been discussing has become even less likely following Wednesday's sharp drop. If somehow the Nasdaq is able to get its act together and climb back above the July 2nd high of 2,165, the door would be opened to further advances toward the 2,600-2,700 area. But make no mistake about it, we firmly believe that Nasdaq 5,000 will remain unapproachable for many years to come as the Great Bear Market of 2000-200[?] runs its course.

Please take a moment to give us your thoughts on where you think the Nasdaq is headed. Cast your vote in our online poll, just up and to the left of this column.    Grizzly

Grizzly's Daily Growl  Wed. 08/08/01  9:00 PM EDT
The markets tried valiantly to rally this morning and by 11:00 AM EDT the DJIA was up 20 points and the Nasdaq was up 11. But that's all she wrote for the rally, and the markets went straight down from there. 

The 2,000 area offered no support whatsoever for the Nasdaq. As we've been saying for the last ten days: "The key support level on the Nasdaq remains at 1,997, the July 26th high. A break thereof should usher in a quick drop to the 1,800 area (+/- 15 points), with the potential for much lower levels from there." At 2:00 the Nasdaq broke 1,997, and the selling accelerated. The Nasdaq lost another 40 points before stabilizing and closing at 1,966, down 61 points (3.0%). The DJIA followed suit all day, tanking 165 points (1.6%), to 10,293.

The Nasdaq has fallen 140 points (6.7%) over the last five days so we shouldn't be surprised by a brief counter-trend rally before the drop to the 1,800 area (+/- 15 points) resumes.

The low-probability alternate bullish count we've been discussing becomes even less likely with today's break of 1,997. If somehow the Nasdaq is able to get its act together and climb back above the July 2nd high of 2,165, the door would be opened to further advances toward the 2,600-2,700 area. But make no mistake about it, we firmly believe that Nasdaq 5,000 will remain unapproachable for many years to come as the Great Bear Market of 2000-200[?] runs its course.

After the market close, tonight's SSDDDC (Same Story Different Day Different Company) winner Gateway reported that its sales in Asia and Europe plunged by about 50% in the company's second quarter and it will begin closing down its European operations. The formerly high-flying Gateway, which traded above $80 at last year's bubble peak, closed today at $11.09. 

Please take a moment to give us your thoughts on where you think the Nasdaq is headed. Cast your vote in our online poll, just up and to the left of this column.    Grizzly

Grizzly's Daily Growl  Tues. 08/07/01  9:00 PM EDT
The markets dropped at today's open, bounced, and then drifted as The Street focused on Cisco Systems earnings report released after the market close. The DJIA gained 57 points (0.5%) and the Nasdaq slipped 6 points to 2,027. 

The former high-flying Ceeeeesco reported its quarterly earnings plunged 87% from the year earlier level, to .02 cents a share, matching anal-ysts expectations. The company added that the weakness will likely continue in the current quarter as "business conditions in Japan and the Asia-Pacific region may get worse before they get better." The company's short-term visibility is "still limited to a several-month window, which could deteriorate rapidly." Hardly encouraging for the bulls.

The Nasdaq has been drifting lower since late May. Over the last three weeks its trading range has narrowed to between 2,075 on the upside and 1,939 on the downside. Our short-term remains unchanged: The key support level on the Nasdaq remains at 1,997, the July 26th high. A break thereof should usher in a quick drop to the 1,800 area (+/- 15 points), with the potential for much lower levels from there. 

Alternatively, if the rally is able to extend above the July 2nd high of 2,165, the door would be opened to further advances toward the 2,600-2,700 area. We think this remains a low probability scenario. But make no mistake about it, we firmly believe that Nasdaq 5,000 will remain unapproachable for many years to come as the Great Bear Market of 2000-200[?] runs its course.

Please take a moment to give us your thoughts on where you think the Nasdaq is headed. Cast your vote in our online poll, just up and to the left of this column.    Grizzly

Grizzly's Daily Growl  Mon. 08/06/01  9:00 PM EDT
The markets tanked today, inspired by still more bad news about the economy. The outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas Inc. reported today that 205,975 jobs were cut in July, more than triple last July's level, and the most in the company's eight years of tracking such data. (Check this month's  Grizzly's Growlings Report, released today, for a full discussion of the economy.)  

The DJIA sank steadily all day and closed down 111 points (1%) at 10,401. The Nasdaq opened down 22 points and drifted lower to close near its low of the day at 2,034, down 32 points (1.6%).

Our short-term remains unchanged: The key support level on the Nasdaq remains at 1,997, the July 26th high. A break thereof should usher in a quick drop to the 1,800 area (+/- 15 points), with the potential for much lower levels from there.  Alternatively, if the rally is able to extend above the July 2nd high of 2,165, the door would be opened to further advances toward the 2,600-2,700 area. We think this remains a low probability scenario. But make no mistake about it, we firmly believe that Nasdaq 5,000 will remain unapproachable for many years to come as the Great Bear Market of 2000-200[?] runs its course.

Please take a moment to give us your thoughts on where you think the Nasdaq is headed. Cast your vote in our online poll, just up and to the left of this column.    Grizzly

Grizzly's Daily Growl  Fri. 08/03/01  9:00 PM EDT
Thursday's choppy advance yielded to Friday's choppy decline as investors once again got a dose of economic reality in today's employment numbers. The gubment reported that 42,000 non-farm jobs were lost in July, on top of June's 93,000 decline. By 10:30 AM EDT, the DJIA had lost 120 points and the Nasdaq sank 41 points. From there, the markets zigged and zagged a bit higher to close near the middle of the day's trading range. The DJIA closed down 38 points (0.4%) at 10,513 and the Nasdaq fell 21 points (1.0%) at 2,066. For the week, the DJIA dropped 0.9% and the Nasdaq gained 1.8%.

Our short-term remains unchanged: The key support level on the Nasdaq remains at 1,997, last Thursday morning's high. A break thereof should usher in a quick drop to the 1,800 area (+/- 15 points), with the potential for much lower levels from there.  Alternatively, if the rally is able to extend above the July 2nd high of 2,165, the door would be opened to further advances toward the 2,600-2,700 area. We think this remains a low probability scenario. But make no mistake about it, we firmly believe that Nasdaq 5,000 will remain unapproachable for many years to come as the Great Bear Market of 2000-200[?] runs its course.

Have a great weekend and tune in Monday morning for a full Grizzly's Growlings Report. Please take a moment to give us your thoughts on where you think the Nasdaq is headed. Cast your vote in our online poll, just up and to the left of this column.    Grizzly

Grizzly's Daily Growl  Thurs. 08/02/01  9:00 PM EDT
It was another day of choppy and unconvincing rally for the markets. Optimism built to a fever pitch overnight as Intel's chairman issued a bullish statement from a trade show over in Malaysia. The futures moved strongly higher and the markets zoomed ahead at the opening. At 10:00 AM EDT the DJIA had gained 100 points and the Nasdaq advanced 35 points. But from there the rally faded and by 2:00 the Nasdaq had dipped back into the red. A late surge pulled the markets back up to near the middle of the day's trading range. The DJIA closed up 41 points (0.4%) at 10,551 and the Nasdaq gained 19 points (0.9%) at 2,088.

Short-term, the key support level on the Nasdaq remains at 1,997, last Thursday morning's high. A break thereof should usher in a quick drop to the 1,800 area (+/- 15 points), with the potential for much lower levels from there.  Alternatively, if the rally is able to extend above the July 2nd high of 2,165, the door would be opened to further advances toward the 2,600-2,700 area. We think this remains a low probability scenario. But make no mistake about it, we firmly believe that Nasdaq 5,000 will remain unapproachable for many years to come as the Great Bear Market of 2000-200[?] runs its course.

Please take a moment to give us your thoughts on where you think the Nasdaq is headed. Cast your vote in our new online poll, just up and to the left of this column.    Grizzly

Grizzly's Daily Growl  Wed. 08/01/01  9:00 PM EDT
The Nasdaq led the way higher today, surging 41 points (2%) to 2,068. The rally was sparked by renewed faith in a tech turnaround, as The Street anal-ysts boosted their outlook for the chip sector. We don't buy it for a second.

Over in the manufacturing sector, the NAPM's manufacturing index sank to 43.6 in July, the 12th consecutive month of readings below the 50 level, indicating a continued contraction in this sector. The old line Blue Chip DJIA fell 13 points (0.1%) to 10,510.

Short-term, the key support level on the Nasdaq is 1,997, last Thursday morning's high. A break thereof should usher in a quick drop to the 1,800 area (+/- 15 points), with the potential for much lower levels from there.  Alternatively, if the rally is able to extend above the July 2nd high of 2,165, the door would be opened to further advances toward the 2,600-2,700 area. We think this remains a low probability scenario. But make no mistake about it, we firmly believe that Nasdaq 5,000 will remain unapproachable for many years to come as the Great Bear Market of 2000-200[?] runs its course."

Please take a moment to give us your thoughts on where you think the Nasdaq is headed. Cast your vote in our new online poll, just up and to the left of this column.    Grizzly